DL Holdings: Model Fair Value Estimate Roughly Halves to ₩216,153 per Share

What happened

The valuation model was re-run on the same basis (5-year DCF, trailing twelve months to H1 2026) and the base case fell from ₩425,852 to ₩216,153 per share, a drop of 49%. The discount rate used moved from 5.1% to 4.7%, so the lower rate did not drive the fall. The bear case dropped from ₩158,855 to ₩2,897, and the bull case from ₩1,016,771 to ₩758,497. No filings or news explain the change; no filing excerpts were provided. The share price closed at ₩43,250 on 2026-10-20, down 20.6% over one month, versus ₩44,450 at the time of the previous report. Recent filings include a major management matter, an IR event and an advance notice of earnings results, all dated 2026-10-19, but their contents are not available.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described improving operating profit, positive free cash flow, thin net profit, a history of loss years and large debt. The reported figures in the data are the same trailing period: operating margin 8.8%, net margin 2.5%, ROE 3.3% and free cash flow of ₩595.9B. So the operating thesis is unchanged. What changes is how much weight the model estimate can carry. A bear case of ₩2,897 shows that small changes in assumptions can remove nearly all of the modeled value. This fits the earlier caution that profit has been uneven. The cause of the price fall and the exchange inquiry on 2026-10-16 remain unexplained in the data.

What it changes for the valuation

The model estimate, based on the assumptions shown, is now ₩2,897 (bear), ₩216,153 (base) and ₩758,497 (bull) per share, against ₩158,855, ₩425,852 and ₩1,016,771 previously. The share price of ₩43,250 is below the base and bull cases but above the bear case. Current multiples are P/E 6.4, P/B 0.2 and P/S 0.2; EV/EBITDA is not available. Enterprise value is ₩5.3T in the latest data, against ₩3.3T in the previous report, and borrowings are shown as ₩5.7T, versus ₩3.6T in the previous report. The data does not explain these differences, and they may reflect a different measurement basis. The range is extremely wide, so the estimate is not a target or a signal to buy or sell.

Closing view

The fall in the model estimate is large, but the operating figures behind it have not changed in the data. This points to sensitivity in the model rather than a clear deterioration in the business. The share price is still far below the base case, yet the bear case is now close to zero, showing how fragile the result is. The data cannot explain the earlier price decline, the exchange inquiry or the new filings. Investors may want to read the earnings release and the management filing before relying on any model figure.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear

₩2,897

-93%

Base

₩216,153

+415%

Bull

₩758,497

+1708%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 4.7%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

• Major management matter relevant to investorsOct 19, 2026
• Investor relations (IR) eventOct 19, 2026
• Advance Notice of Earnings Results Disclosure (Informational Disclosure)Oct 19, 2026
• Exchange inquiry about a news report or price moveOct 16, 2026
• Change in Affiliated Companies (Voluntary Disclosure)Oct 12, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportOct 6, 2026
• Amended: Major sales or supply contractOct 2, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportOct 2, 2026
• Amended: Major sales or supply contractSep 7, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportSep 1, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportSep 1, 2026
• Disclosure on Large Business Group Status [Quarterly Disclosure (For Representative Company)]Aug 31, 2026
• Daily prices up to 2026-10-20
• Financial statements, trailing 12 months as of H1 2026
• Our fair value model, statements as of TTM to H1 2026

Report history

1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeDL Holdings: Model Fair Value Estimate Roughly Halves to ₩216,153 per Share
2. Oct 19, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)DL Holdings: Share Price Down 18.6% in a Month as Earnings Recover but Net Margin Stays Thin