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JONBUR Research · Update note

Medy-Tox · 086900 · Biotech & Pharma

Medy-Tox: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut by About a Third to ₩34,974 Base Case

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved -34% (₩51,161 → ₩33,868 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model estimate of Medy-Tox's fair value fell sharply, with the base case now at ₩34,974 per share versus ₩51,161 in the previous report. The share price of ₩66,200 remains well above the base case, so the gap between model and market has widened.

Written Oct 27, 2026 · Data as of Oct 26, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

There was no new company filing behind this update. The change comes from our discounted cash flow model. An event flagged a drop of about 34% in the model estimate (₩51,161 to ₩33,868 per share) on 2026-10-22. The latest run gives a base case of ₩34,974, a bear case of ₩13,942 and a bull case of ₩73,089, using a 6.9% discount rate on trailing figures to H1 2026. The previous report used a 7.5% rate and gave ₩30,157 bear and ₩86,212 bull. The financial inputs shown are unchanged in scale: trailing revenue of ₩251.1B, operating margin of 6.9% and free cash flow of ₩54.4B. The data does not say which model assumption drove the cut. Recent filings were routine: an interim dividend of ₩1,200 per share (reported by Edaily) with an ex-date of 2026-10-27, and a share cancellation decision amended on 2026-09-30. The share price fell from ₩70,000 to ₩66,200 between the two notes.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described growing revenue and positive free cash flow but weak profitability, with operating margin down from 23.9% in 2022 to 6.9% and ROE of 3.6%. Nothing in the new data changes that picture. Margins, ROE and revenue are the same as before. Foreign ownership has slipped further, from 16.0% to 12.2% over 60 days, which is consistent with the earlier note on weaker foreign demand. The open question remains whether margins can recover, and the data cannot answer it.

What it changes for the valuation

The model estimate based on the assumptions shown is now ₩34,974 per share in the base case (previously ₩51,161), within a range of ₩13,942 to ₩73,089 (previously ₩30,157 to ₩86,212). The current price of ₩66,200 is about 89% above the base case and falls inside the bear-to-bull range, near its upper part. The range is now wider, so the estimate is less precise. Current multiples are P/E 31.5, P/B 1.3, P/S 1.9 and a dividend yield of 1.8%; EV/EBITDA is not available. Peers show P/E from 14.8 to 78.8 and P/B from 2.5 to 28.4, all P/B above Medy-Tox, though peers are far larger. This is a model estimate, not a target or a buy or sell signal.

Closing view

The update is about the model, not about new company news. Operating results are unchanged, but the model now assigns a lower base value, and the market price sits further above it. The wide range, from ₩13,942 to ₩73,089, shows how sensitive the estimate is to assumptions. Steady sales, positive cash flow and a dividend sit against thin margins, low returns and falling foreign ownership. The evidence remains mixed, and it depends mainly on whether profitability improves.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩13,942
-79%
Base
₩34,974
-47%
Bull
₩73,089
+10%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 6.9%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 27, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeMedy-Tox: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut by About a Third to ₩34,974 Base Case
  2. Oct 20, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Medy-Tox: Modest Profitability, Share Price Down 40.5% Over a Year, Model Estimate Below Market Price

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information