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JONBUR Research · Update note

DuChemBio · 176750 · Biotech & Pharma

DuChemBio: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 24.4% to ₩4,009 per Share

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved -25% (₩5,300 → ₩3,959 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model estimate of DuChemBio's fair value fell to ₩4,009 per share from ₩5,300 in the previous report. The shares still trade well above it, so the gap between price and model estimate remains wide.

Written Oct 25, 2026 · Data as of Oct 23, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

The model was re-run on the same trailing data (to H1 2026) with a slightly lower discount rate of 7.4%, against 7.5% before. The base estimate is now ₩4,009 per share, down from ₩5,300. The bear case is ₩2,632 (previously ₩3,711) and the bull case is ₩6,267 (previously ₩7,857). The event log records the base move as -25%; from the two figures shown it is about -24.4%.

No new filings accompany this change. The data does not explain why the estimate fell, and the lower discount rate would normally push the value up, not down. The trailing figures shown are unchanged: revenue of ₩41.5B, an operating margin of 19.4% and free cash flow of ₩11.9B.

The share price closed at ₩7,720 on 2026-10-23, down from ₩8,600 on 2026-10-16. It is up 23.1% over one month and down 18.3% over one year. Market value is about ₩219.9B. News headlines on 2026-10-22 mention a trading halt from the 26th, linked to volume exceeding an exchange threshold; the data gives no further detail.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report's thesis is largely unchanged. It described a profitable small company with healthy margins, positive free cash flow and cash above borrowings, with a price jump that looked news-driven rather than visible in the financial statements. Cash is ₩19.0B against borrowings of ₩5.9B, and those points still hold.

What changes is the size of the gap between price and model estimate. The open questions from the previous report, the merger completed on 2026-10-02 and the Alzheimer's drug approval hopes, remain unresolved. The model does not include their effects.

What it changes for the valuation

The model estimate is now ₩4,009 per share (bear ₩2,632, bull ₩6,267), against ₩5,300 (bear ₩3,711, bull ₩7,857) before. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target. At ₩7,720 the price is about 92.6% above the base estimate and 23.2% above the bull case. In the previous report the price of ₩8,600 was above the bull case of ₩7,857 by 9.5%.

At the current price the P/E is 32.2, P/B 4.3 and P/S 5.3, all lower than the readings in the previous report (35.9, 4.8 and 5.9), because the price has fallen. The P/E is below Samsung Biologics (34.2) and Alteogen (81.0) but above Celltrion (28.6), Yuhan (26.3) and SK biopharmaceuticals (15.0). EV/EBITDA is not available, and no dividend is paid.

Closing view

The evidence points to unchanged operating results but a lower model estimate, and the shares sit further above the model's range than the model's own bull case. The valuation gap rests on expectations around the merger and the Alzheimer's news, which the model does not capture, and on a rally that has partly reversed. The reason for the lower estimate is not shown in the data. Investors should weigh solid reported profits against the uncertainty over what the price already reflects and the coming trading halt.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩2,632
-63%
Base
₩4,009
-43%
Bull
₩6,267
-11%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.4%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 25, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeDuChemBio: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 24.4% to ₩4,009 per Share
  2. Oct 18, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)DuChemBio: Sharp One-Month Rally Leaves Shares Well Above a Model Estimate, Backed by Steady Profits

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information