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JONBUR Research · Update note

ST Pharm · 237690 · Biotech & Pharma

ST Pharm Shares Fall 17.6% in Five Days to Near 52-Week Low After Q3 Preliminary Earnings

Why this report

Written after:

  • Big price moveShares down 17.6% over 5 trading days on 2.1× normal volumeOct 29, 2026

ST Pharm's share price fell 17.6% over five trading days to ₩74,000 on 2.1× normal volume, just above its 52-week low. The model now gives a fair value estimate, which the previous report lacked, and it sits far below the current share price.

Written Oct 30, 2026 · Data as of Oct 29, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

From Oct 23 to Oct 29, 2026, the shares dropped 17.6% on volume 2.1 times normal. The close on Oct 29 was ₩74,000, against a 52-week low of ₩73,500 and a high of ₩172,100. The one-month return is -20.7% and the one-year return is -26.6%.

The fall followed preliminary consolidated earnings on Oct 27. Headlines reported Q3 revenue of ₩97.6B (up 19.1% year on year) and operating profit of ₩15.7B (up 6.6%). One Edaily headline said a broker's target price was cut despite higher orders and sales, but the filing excerpts and headlines do not give the reasons. No filing text was provided for this event, so the cause of the drop is not confirmed. Other recent items include IR events on Oct 22 and Oct 27, reports of a Roche-related RNA order opportunity, and a small change in Dong-A Socio Holdings' stake to 37.7% (-0.02 pts).

Over the last 20 days, foreigners were net buyers of about ₩9.0B and institutions net sellers of about ₩15.5B. Foreign ownership is 13.4%, up from 12.2% sixty days ago.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report (Oct 13) pointed to improving fundamentals, with revenue up 21.2% in 2025 and a trailing operating margin of 18.3%, alongside a weak share price it could not explain. The new data does not break that picture: Q3 revenue and operating profit rose year on year. But operating profit growth of 6.6% was much slower than revenue growth of 19.1%, which may point to pressure on margins. This is our reading of the headlines, not something the filings confirm.

The trailing figures in our data pack are still those to H1 2026 (revenue ₩386.5B, operating margin 18.3%, free cash flow ₩77.3B), so they do not yet include Q3. The gap between fundamentals and share price has widened rather than closed.

What it changes for the valuation

At ₩74,000, P/E is 20.1 and P/B is 2.5, down from 23.4 and 2.8 in the previous report. Among the listed peers, P/E ranges from 15.2 (SK biopharmaceuticals) to 79.4 (Alteogen), and P/B from 2.3 (Yuhan) to 28.6 (Alteogen). ST Pharm sits at the lower end of both, though the peers differ in size and business.

The previous report had no model estimate. The model now gives a DCF-based estimate of ₩16,859 (bear), ₩26,733 (base) and ₩44,058 (bull) per share, using a 7.4% rate and data to H1 2026. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a price target. Even the bull case is well below the ₩74,000 share price, which means the market is pricing in much stronger cash flows than the model's assumptions capture. The model is sensitive to its inputs and should be read with caution.

Closing view

The evidence is mixed. Reported Q3 growth in revenue and operating profit, a modest debt load and rising foreign ownership sit alongside a sharp price fall, slower profit growth than revenue growth, and a model estimate far below the share price. The data does not show what drove the sell-off, and Q3 figures are not yet in the trailing financials. Further filings, including the full Q3 report, would clarify whether margins are the issue.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩16,859
-77%
Base
₩26,733
-64%
Bull
₩44,058
-40%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.4%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 30, 2026Update noteBig price moveST Pharm Shares Fall 17.6% in Five Days to Near 52-Week Low After Q3 Preliminary Earnings
  2. Oct 13, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (300 largest)ST Pharm: Profits Have Risen Since 2021, but the Share Price Is Down 29.3% Over Three Months

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information