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JONBUR Research · Update note

Kakao Games · 293490 · Software

Kakao Games: Shares Rise 16.4% in Five Days on Heavy Volume

Why this report

Written after:

  • Big price moveShares up 16.4% over 5 trading days on 2.6× normal volumeOct 27, 2026

Kakao Games shares rose 16.4% over five trading days to 2026-10-27 on volume 2.6 times normal, closing at ₩11,850. No new filings explain the move, and our model estimate is essentially unchanged, so the gap between price and model has widened again.

Written Oct 28, 2026 · Data as of Oct 27, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

From 2026-10-21 to 2026-10-27 the share price gained 16.4% on 2.6 times normal trading volume. The close on 2026-10-27 was ₩11,850, giving a market value of about ₩1.26T. The shares are up 31.4% over one month and 58.4% over three months, but still down 25.9% over one year and below the 52-week high of ₩18,440.

There are no filing excerpts tied to this move, and the latest filings are an earnings-date notice and an IR event on 2026-10-14. News headlines point to the new title Dokkaebi's World (also translated Goblin's World) topping Google Play sales, a brokerage target price raise to ₩15,000 on an expected return to profit next year, and commentary about a possible end to the deficit run. We have no sales figures for the game and no company guidance, so we cannot verify these claims.

Over 20 days, institutions were net buyers of about ₩13.6B and foreigners of about ₩7.5B, while retail investors were net sellers of about ₩23.4B. Foreign ownership is 4.9%, up from 4.7% sixty days ago. The short balance is 1.3%.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described a share price recovering ahead of any visible recovery in the numbers. The latest move fits that description more strongly. The reported numbers are unchanged: trailing revenue is ₩384.3B, operating loss ₩67.0B (margin -17.4%), net loss ₩129.9B and free cash flow -₩59.5B, all to H1 2026.

The market appears to be reacting to the game's early ranking and to analyst expectations rather than to reported results. The earnings release remains the next test of whether the new title shows up in revenue and losses. Until then, the thesis of caution about the numbers is neither confirmed nor refuted.

What it changes for the valuation

The model estimate is essentially unchanged: a base of ₩1,479 per share, with a bear case of ₩835 and a bull case of ₩2,682, at a 7.3% discount rate. The previous report had ₩1,478 base, ₩837 bear and ₩2,671 bull. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target.

At ₩11,850, the share price is about 8.0 times the base estimate and about 4.4 times the bull case, a wider gap than the 6.9 times in the previous report because the price rose. Price-to-book is 1.0x and price-to-sales is 3.3x; price-to-earnings and EV/EBITDA cannot be calculated because earnings are negative. Cash of ₩720.1B is below borrowings of ₩971.1B. Among peers, price-to-book runs from 0.5x (Netmarble) to 4.7x (Hyundai Autoever).

The model assumes no recovery beyond current results, so it does not capture any benefit from the new game.

Closing view

The evidence shows a sharp, high-volume price rise backed by positive news flow about the new title, but no new filed figures. The model estimate has not moved, so the move widens the distance between market price and model rather than closing it. The market is pricing in a recovery that the reported numbers do not yet show, and the next earnings release will be the first hard evidence on that.

This note is informational only and is not a recommendation.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩835
-93%
Base
₩1,479
-88%
Bull
₩2,682
-77%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.3%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 28, 2026Update noteBig price moveKakao Games: Shares Rise 16.4% in Five Days on Heavy Volume
  2. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeKakao Games: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 47% to ₩1,478 per Share
  3. Oct 18, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (300 largest)Kakao Games: Shares Rebound 30.8% Over Three Months While Losses Persist and Revenue Keeps Falling

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information