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Week ahead · Oct 26 – Oct 30, 2026

KOSPI tests 5,500 as FOMC, SK hynix and Samsung returns, and Q3 GDP converge

KOSPI closed at 5,550.3 and KOSDAQ at 751.69 after sharp falls. This week brings the FOMC, Big Tech results, SK hynix earnings, Korea's Q3 GDP and a heavy slate of results.

KOSPI ended last week at 5,550.3, down 2.08%, and KOSDAQ fell 5.42% to 751.69. Brent oil was at 116.72 and AI spending doubts weighed. This week stacks the Fed's October FOMC, Big Tech earnings, SK hynix's Q3 results and Korea's Q3 GDP.

Sources describe a market without direction, with attention on whether chip majors' shareholder returns can improve demand and supply after foreign selling. US monetary policy, Middle East risk and oil were cited as constraints on a rebound. The statistical range for KOSPI, based on recent volatility, is 5,150 to 5,950. It is not a JONBUR forecast.

KOSPI range for the week

5,150 – 5,950
Volatility range5,150–5,950
Combined range5,150–5,950

Last close: 5,550.3

A statistical range: the middle of the brokers' published weekly bands, and one standard deviation of a week's move at recent volatility, averaged. It is not JONBUR's forecast.

What the charts show

KOSPI at 5,550.3 is 12.5% below its 20-day average, 15.1% below its 60-day and 22.4% below its 120-day. RSI is 31.3. The 20-day low is 5,533.77, just under the close, and the 20-day high is 7,080.92. The 52-week high is 9,114.55 and the low 3,386.05. It fell 2.08% last week.

KOSDAQ at 751.69 closed on its 20-day low, 9.9% below its 20-day average, 7.9% below its 60-day and 17% below its 120-day. RSI is 36.2. The 20-day high is 919.92, the 52-week high 1,226.18 and the low 644.78. It fell 5.42% last week. VKOSPI is 52.05.

KOSPI5,550.3
20-day average60-day averageThis week's range
KOSDAQ751.69
20-day average60-day average
CloseLast weekvs 20-day avgvs 60-day avgvs 120-day avgRSI (14)20-day high / low52-week high / low
KOSPI5,550.3−2.1%−12.5%−15.1%−22.4%317,081 / 5,5349,115 / 3,386
KOSDAQ751.69−5.4%−9.9%−7.9%−17.0%36920 / 7521,226 / 645

The week's calendar

Oct 26 (Mon): preliminary results expected from SK hynix, KB Financial Group, HD Hyundai Electric, Samsung Heavy Industries, LG Innotek and others. China's plenary session runs through the 29th.

Oct 27 (Tue): Bank of Korea Q3 GDP flash at 8 a.m.; results from Shinhan Financial Group, Hyundai Mobis, POSCO Holdings, Hanwha Ocean. KT goes ex-dividend, and Lotte rental holds a shareholders' meeting.

Oct 28 (Wed): results from Samsung C&T, Samsung SDI, NH Investment & Securities, Doosan Bobcat, OCI. KT dividend record date. SK hynix holds its Q3 release and call on this day, per sources.

Oct 29 (Thu): Samsung Electro-Mechanics, LG H&H, Kumho Tire and others report; TNE Korea Co., Ltd. lists. Samsung Electronics releases final Q3 figures, per a source.

Oct 30 (Fri): September industrial activity data, after output fell in July and August. LG Chem, Samsung SDS, Hyundai Glovis, LG CNS and Hanwha Systems report. Institutional bookbuilding for IPOs Xenon, Younggwang YKMC and AL Robot runs Oct 26-30.

Mon, Oct 26

Tue, Oct 27

Wed, Oct 28

Thu, Oct 29

Fri, Oct 30

Overseas

The FOMC meets Oct 27-28, with the decision at 3 a.m. Korea time on the 29th. Brokers expect rates to be held, per sources. One source says CME FedWatch priced a 50% chance of a 0.25-point hike, down from 70% after a speech by Williams. Daishin Securities' Lee Kyung-min said a tightening path could limit a rebound. US Q3 GDP and September PCE come out the same day.

Microsoft and Alphabet report on the 29th Korea time, Amazon on the 30th; Intel is also due. Investors are watching AI capex sustainability and free cash flow, as Meta's heavy capex raised cash-flow concerns. The Bank of Japan meets Oct 29-30 and is expected to hold. Market levels: S&P 500 7,622.86, USD/KRW 1,324.6, UST 10y 5, KTB 3y 3.803, Brent 116.72, gold 4,007.9.

Results this week

SK hynix reports Q3 against a consensus of about 98.2 trillion won in revenue and 76.96 trillion won in operating profit. NH Investment & Securities estimates its added shareholder-return pool at over 30 trillion won. Samsung Electronics' preliminary Q3 operating profit was 107.4 trillion won. Analysts expect 70-80 trillion won in cash dividends and 30-40 trillion won in buybacks and cancellations.

Other filings cover banks and financial groups (KB Financial, Shinhan Financial, IBK), shipbuilders and electrical equipment (Samsung Heavy Industries, Hanwha Ocean, HD Hyundai Electric), batteries and chemicals (Samsung SDI, LG Chem) and POSCO Holdings.

In focus this week

AI and data centers: Big Tech capex and profitability are under review, with AI shares down 9.96% over four weeks. HBM and chips: SK hynix and Samsung returns are in focus, with HBM down 25.5% over four weeks. NH Investment & Securities said a buyback could absorb some foreign selling.

Value-up and high dividend: low PBR anchors broker downside estimates. Construction: Samsung E&A rose 37.2% last week on a Q3 profit rise and a buyback, and raised its 2026 order target to 19 trillion won from 12 trillion. Last week's movers also included robots (NRobotics, Bigwave Robotics), data-center supercapacitors (Vina Tech, Koses) and China biotech (G2GBIO).

Fed FOMC and Big Tech earnings test Kospi's 5,500 level

The Fed's October FOMC decision, due Korean time on the 29th, falls alongside Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Intel earnings, with investors watching AI capex sustainability; Meta's heavy capex has raised cash-flow concerns. Brokers expect a holding rate, and NH Investment & Securities sees the Kospi in a 5,100-6,400 range this week.12345678

Moves over the last 4 weeks

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Further out

SK Hynix and Samsung Q3 results put shareholder returns in focus

SK Hynix reports Q3 results on October 28 against a consensus of about 98.2 trillion won in revenue and 76.96 trillion won in operating profit, while Samsung's preliminary Q3 operating profit was 107.4 trillion won. Analysts expect Samsung to pay 70-80 trillion won in cash dividends plus 30-40 trillion won in buybacks and cancellations, and NH Investment & Securities sees SK Hynix's added return pool at over 30 trillion won.12345

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Further out

Kospi falls 3.7% as brokers see downside to 5,100-5,300

The Kospi dropped 3.7%, and Korea Investment & Securities left room for a fall to 5,150, roughly 1x forward PBR, while Hana Securities sees a second low near 5,300. The index closed the week of October 23 at 5,550.30, down 2.08%, and the Kosdaq fell 5.42% to 751.69.1234

Moves over the last 4 weeks

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Samsung E&A jumps 37% in three days on earnings beat and buyback

Samsung E&A rose 37% in three days after Q3 operating profit about double consensus and its first-ever treasury share cancellation. The company raised its 2026 new order target to 19 trillion won from 12 trillion, and its operating profit target to 1.4 trillion won from 800 billion.123

Moves over the last 4 weeks

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Korea Q3 GDP and September industry data due this week

The Bank of Korea releases Q3 GDP flash on October 27 and the National Data Office publishes September industrial activity on October 30, after output fell in July and August. Semiconductor exports have been stronger than expected, so Q3 growth may beat the Bank of Korea's 0.3% quarter-on-quarter estimate.123

Moves over the last 4 weeks

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What the brokers say

NH Investment & Securities forecast KOSPI at 5,100-6,400 this week. Kiwoom Securities' Han Ji-young earlier gave 5,200-5,900 for the previous week. Korea Investment & Securities left room for a fall to 5,150, about 1x forward PBR, and Hana Securities sees a second low near 5,300. Shinhan Investment named the Big Tech earnings relay and AI capex as the key events. Daishin Securities flagged how the policy path could constrain a rebound.

Written by AI from JONBUR's data and the linked articles, and checked against them. Brokers' views are theirs. The range is statistical, from brokers' published bands and recent volatility; it is not a forecast. Not financial advice.

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