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Macro & Credit

Korean interest rates, credit spreads and the won, corporate bond deals, where ELS products would knock in, and the derivatives calendar.

Latest Oct 31, 2026

Korean rates

BOK base rate3.00%1D 0 bp1W 0 bp1M 0 bp
CD 91-day3.32%1D +3 bp1W +6 bp1M +10 bp
KTB 3y3.72%1D −5 bp1W −9 bp1M −30 bp
KTB 10y4.01%1D −7 bp1W −9 bp1M −40 bp
KTB 30y4.12%1D −9 bp1W −6 bp1M −40 bp
KTB 3y–10y curve29 bp1D −2 bp1W −0 bp1M −10 bp
2.50%3.63%4.75%
KTB 3y 3.71%KTB 10y 4.01%KTB 30y 4.12%BOK base rate 3.00%2025-11-01 – 2026-10-30

Credit spreads

How much more a company with this rating pays to borrow for 3 years than the government. Wider = lenders are more cautious.

AA- spread (3y)69 bp1D +1 bp1W +0 bp1M 0 bp
BBB- spread (3y)652 bp1D +1 bp1W +1 bp1M +2 bp
Corporate AA- 3y4.41%1D −4 bp1W −8 bp1M −30 bp
Corporate BBB- 3y10.23%1D −4 bp1W −8 bp1M −27 bp
39 bp56 bp72 bp
AA- spread (3y) 69 bp2025-11-03 – 2026-10-30
624 bp638 bp652 bp
BBB- spread (3y) 652 bp2025-11-03 – 2026-10-30

Retail margin & forced selling

How much retail money is bought on margin, and how much is being sold by brokers when accounts fall below their maintenance level (반대매매). Market-wide figures run about two trading days behind.

Forced-selling pulse10CalmOct 22, 2026

Margin loans

₩30T

−7.3% in 5 days · 8th percentile of the last year

Forced selling

₩11B

0.4× the 20-day average

Forced-sale share

1.0%

Unpaid settlements

₩1T

Retail stock borrowing ₩21B

₩5.8T₩18T₩30T
KOSPI ₩24TKOSDAQ ₩6.8T2026-04-22 – 2026-10-22
₩2.3B₩86B₩170B
Forced selling ₩11B2026-04-22 – 2026-10-22

Calm under 30, normal to 50, elevated to 70, high above. From today's forced-sale amount vs its 20-day average, the forced-sale share of receivables, where margin loans sit in their 1-year range, and whether they are being cut fast.

Estimates from public margin-lending statistics. Not a prediction or a recommendation.

The won

USD/KRW1,335.31D −0.1%1W +0.8%1M −1.7%
JPY/KRW (per ¥100)846.41D −0.1%1W +0.0%1M −1.9%
CNY/KRW200.41D +0.1%1W +1.0%1M −1.0%
EUR/KRW1,494.01D +0.2%1W +0.5%1M −3.0%
132314391554
USD/KRW 13352025-11-03 – 2026-10-30

Korea fear gauge (VKOSPI)

VKOSPI measures how much movement options traders expect in the KOSPI 200 over the next month. Higher means more fear.

Today52.32+1.8%NormalHigher than 55% of the last year
22.359.696.9
VKOSPI 52.32025-10-02 – 2026-10-30

Bond indexes and treasury yields

Treasury benchmark yields

  • 2-year3.705%-3.4 bp
  • 3-year3.717%-5.1 bp
  • 5-year3.867%-5.7 bp
  • 10-year1.197%-7.8 bp
  • 10-year4.008%-7.3 bp
  • 20-year4.105%-6.7 bp
  • 30-year4.124%-9 bp
Bond indexes
IndexTotal returnDayThis yearYieldDuration
KTB Prime Index199.60+0.49+0.38%3.82%3.94
KTB Index16223.09+28.66+1.36%3.74%2.80
194.4197.7200.9
KTB Prime Index 199.62025-11-03 – 2026-10-30

Total return indexes include interest. Benchmark yields are the most traded issue for each maturity on the exchange's treasury market.

United States

US 10y4.94%1D −4 bp1W −6 bp1M −30 bp
US 2y4.56%1D −5 bp1W −13 bp1M −22 bp
US 2y–10y curve38 bp1D +1 bp1W +7 bp1M −8 bp
Korea–US 10y gap-93 bp1D −3 bp1W −3 bp1M −15 bp
Fed funds rate3.88%1D 0 bp1W 0 bp1M 0 bp
US high-yield spread3.26%1D +12 bp1W −14 bp1M +2 bp
4.56%4.93%5.31%
US 10y 4.94%US 2y 4.56%2026-09-14 – 2026-10-30

Corporate bond deals

New corporate bonds in the last 30 days: how many bids came in at the demand forecast (수요예측) and where the price landed in the range.

ELS knock-in map

ELS are notes sold mostly to Korean savers whose payout depends on an index or stock staying above a knock-in level. Where a lot of that level sits just below today's level, a fall can trigger hedging trades.

SK hynix · ₩1T estimated outstanding in 262 products

  1. Now 1,418,000886,250–921,700₩167M
  2. 709,000–744,450₩3B
  3. 673,550–709,000₩1.5B
  4. 638,100–673,550₩2.1B
  5. 602,650–638,100₩11B
  6. 567,200–602,650₩23B
  7. 531,750–567,200₩20B
  8. 496,300–531,750₩30B
  9. 460,850–496,300₩2.4B
  10. 425,400–460,850₩20B
  11. 389,950–425,400₩6.6B
  12. 354,500–389,950₩2.3B

Next early-redemption tests by month

  1. 10
  2. 11
  3. 12
  4. 01
  5. 02
  6. 03
  7. 04
  8. 05
  9. 06
  10. 07
  11. 08
  12. 09
  • Estimate from public filings, not a complete record of outstanding products.
  • Products on several underlyings (worst-of) count in full under each of them.
  • Products with an underlying we can't check (overseas indexes) are assumed outstanding until they mature.
  • Covers products filed since Aug 27, 2026.

Estimates from public filings. Levels are not predictions or trading recommendations.

Leveraged ETF flows

Leveraged (2×) and inverse (−1×, −2×) ETFs must trade at the close to keep their leverage: they buy after up days and sell after down days. Here is the estimated pressure on each stock as a share of its normal trading value.

Biggest estimated rebalance today · Oct 30, 2026 · Notable (≥ 5% of average trading value)

  1. CS−₩1.5B−323.0%
  2. Caregen−₩1.5B−57.2%
  3. Daou Data−₩522M−55.5%
  4. Celltrion Pharm−₩1.3B−48.6%
  5. Gabia−₩540M−43.8%
  6. Shinyoung Securities−₩370M−42.7%
  7. Asiana Airlines−₩265M−41.0%
  8. Studio Dragon−₩545M−40.8%
  9. Yuilrobotics−₩534M−38.9%
  10. Lotte Reit−₩224M−37.0%
  11. Nexon Games−₩505M−36.9%
  12. Aimed Bio−₩1B−32.4%
  13. Chabiotech−₩502M−32.2%
  14. Dongwon Industries−₩274M−31.2%
  15. Shift UP−₩318M−29.7%

Estimate based on ETF size and daily moves; actual trades may differ.

Fund size (AUM) by underlying, last 20 trading days

  • 000660 -2×₩103B
  • 000660 2×₩2.5T
  • 005930 -2×₩18B
  • 005930 2×₩1.7T
  • 034730 2×₩6B
  • 065770 -1×₩9.9B
  • 065770 2×₩43B
  • KOSDAQ 150 -1×₩169B
  • KOSDAQ 150 2×₩2.8T
  • KOSPI 200 -2×₩917B
  • KOSPI 200 -1×₩769B
  • KOSPI 200 2×₩5.7T

Coming up

  • Nov 6in 5 daysUS jobs report for October 2026
  • Nov 10in 9 daysUS inflation (CPI) for October 2026
  • Nov 12in 11 daysMonthly derivatives expiryIndex options, mini KOSPI 200 futures and single-stock futures and options expire (second Thursday).
  • Dec 4in 33 daysUS jobs report for November 2026
  • Dec 10in 39 daysQuadruple witchingKOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 futures and options and single-stock futures and options all expire. Trading near the close is often heavy.
  • Dec 10in 39 daysUS inflation (CPI) for November 2026
  • Dec 11in 40 daysKOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 rebalanceChanges from the regular index review take effect. Index funds usually trade them at the previous day's close.
  • Jan 14in 74 daysMonthly derivatives expiryIndex options, mini KOSPI 200 futures and single-stock futures and options expire (second Thursday).

Notable lately

  • MaturitiesNov 1, 202685Lotte Reit: ₩160bn of bonds due in the next 6 months vs ₩39bn cash₩330bn due within 12 months, from the bond filings so far; cash and cash equivalents as of 2026 H1.Lotte ReitLOTTE Fine ChemicalLotteLotte Chilsung BeverageLotte ChemicalLotte Energy Materials
  • MaturitiesNov 1, 202685ISU Abxis: ₩50bn of bonds due in the next 6 months vs ₩23bn cash₩50bn due within 12 months, from the bond filings so far; cash and cash equivalents as of 2026 H1.ISU Abxis
  • MaturitiesNov 1, 202685GC Biopharma: ₩130bn of bonds due in the next 6 months vs ₩42bn cash₩130bn due within 12 months, from the bond filings so far; cash and cash equivalents as of 2026 H1.GC Biopharma
  • MaturitiesNov 1, 202685Coway: ₩310bn of bonds due in the next 6 months vs ₩140bn cash₩310bn due within 12 months, from the bond filings so far; cash and cash equivalents as of 2026 H1.CowayNetmarble
  • MaturitiesNov 1, 202685SK Reit: ₩130bn of bonds due in the next 6 months vs ₩54bn cash₩350bn due within 12 months, from the bond filings so far; cash and cash equivalents as of 2025 FY.SK ReitSK hynixSK NetworksSK DiscoverySKCSK Telecom
  • MaturitiesNov 1, 202685DYD: ₩25bn of bonds due in the next 6 months vs ₩1.3bn cash₩25bn due within 12 months, from the bond filings so far; cash and cash equivalents as of 2026 H1.DYD
  • MaturitiesNov 1, 202675Daesung Energy: ₩60bn of bonds due in the next 6 months vs ₩40bn cash₩60bn due within 12 months, from the bond filings so far; cash and cash equivalents as of 2026 H1.Daesung Energy
  • MaturitiesNov 1, 202675Hansol Paper: ₩40bn of bonds due in the next 6 months vs ₩24bn cash₩40bn due within 12 months, from the bond filings so far; cash and cash equivalents as of 2026 H1.Hansol PaperHansol HoldingsHansol TechnicsHansol LogisticsHansol ChemicalHansol HomeDeco
  • MaturitiesNov 1, 202675Dongwha Enterprise: ₩60bn of bonds due in the next 6 months vs ₩43bn cash₩60bn due within 12 months, from the bond filings so far; cash and cash equivalents as of 2026 H1.Dongwha EnterpriseEugene Investment & SecuritiesTongyangEugeneYTN
  • MaturitiesNov 1, 202675Hyundai Department Store: ₩200bn of bonds due in the next 6 months vs ₩158bn cash₩200bn due within 12 months, from the bond filings so far; cash and cash equivalents as of 2026 H1.Hyundai Department StoreDaewonkangupHyundai G.F. HoldingsZinusHandsomeSamwonsteel