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Hite Jinro · 000080 · Food & Beverage

Hite Jinro: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises 70% as Discount Rate Falls to 6.0%

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved +70% (₩15,415 → ₩26,247 per share)Oct 22, 2026

The model estimate of fair value for Hite Jinro rose 70% to ₩26,247 per share from ₩15,415, while the share price is ₩16,060. The change comes from the model's assumptions, not from a new company filing, so it changes the valuation picture more than the business picture.

Written Oct 21, 2026 · Data as of Oct 20, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model estimate moved from ₩15,415 to ₩26,247 per share, a rise of 70%. No filings or other company events accompany this change, and no smaller recent events are listed as background.

The financial base is unchanged: trailing figures to H1 2026 show revenue of ₩2.45T, operating income of ₩166.0B (6.8% margin), net income of ₩47.1B (1.9% margin) and free cash flow of ₩55.1B. The visible difference in the model is the discount rate, now 6.0% against 7.1% in the previous report. The bear case is now ₩5,150 (previously ₩3,373) and the bull case is ₩66,872 (previously ₩37,193).

The share price closed at ₩16,060 on 2026-10-20, up 8.1% over one month and down 14.9% over one year, against ₩15,710 at the time of the previous report.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described a stable but slow-growing business with thin profitability and a model estimate close to the share price. Nothing in the data changes that description: revenue is still roughly flat around ₩2.4T to ₩2.6T, net margin is 1.9% and ROE is 4.1%.

The open points from that report remain: weak earnings conversion, leverage (liabilities are 172.6% of equity, borrowings ₩920.9B against cash of ₩193.6B) and the production suspension disclosed on 2026-09-09, for which no details are available here. Foreign ownership has risen to 8.4% from 6.6% sixty days ago, which is a modest supportive sign. The short balance is 1.8%.

What it changes for the valuation

The model now gives a base estimate of ₩26,247 per share, with a bear case of ₩5,150 and a bull case of ₩66,872. Previously the base was ₩15,415, with a range of ₩3,373 to ₩37,193. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target or a reason to act.

The base estimate is now about 63% above the ₩16,060 price, whereas before it was close to the price. Because the earnings inputs are the same, the shift reflects mainly the lower discount rate. That shows how sensitive a five-year discounted cash flow is to this one assumption, especially for a company with thin margins. The range is even wider than before.

Current multiples are P/E 23.9, P/B 1.0, EV/EBITDA 6.5 and dividend yield 4.4%. The P/E remains above most listed peers shown (Orion 10.6, Nongshim 12.7, Otoki 18.0, Samyang Foods 18.9).

Closing view

The 70% move in the model estimate is large, but it is driven by a change in model assumptions rather than by new information about the company's operations or earnings. The business data are unchanged from the previous report: steady sales, low net profitability, leverage and an unexplained production suspension. The wider bear-to-bull range means the estimate carries little precision, and the gap to the share price should be read with that in mind. This is a summary of the evidence, not a recommendation.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩5,150
-68%
Base
₩26,247
+66%
Bull
₩66,872
+322%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 6%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeHite Jinro: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises 70% as Discount Rate Falls to 6.0%
  2. Oct 18, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (300 largest)Hite Jinro: Thin Profit Margins and a Model Estimate Near the Share Price

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information