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JONBUR Research · Update note

Gaon Cable · 000500 · Electrical equipment

Gaon Cable: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 37% to ₩21,313 per Share

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved -37% (₩33,822 → ₩21,313 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model estimate of Gaon Cable's base-case fair value fell 37.0% to ₩21,313 per share from ₩33,822, after the discount rate was raised to 13.0% from 12.5%. The change widens the gap to a share price that was already far above the model range, and it does not alter the operating story in the previous report.

Written Oct 21, 2026 · Data as of Oct 20, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model's base-case fair value moved from ₩33,822 to ₩21,313 per share, a fall of 37.0%. No new company filing triggered this. The filing excerpts provided are empty.

The visible changes in the inputs are a higher discount rate, 13.0% against 12.5% before, and a lower range. The bear case is now ₩2,823 (previously ₩7,868) and the bull case ₩49,082 (previously ₩71,473). The data period is unchanged, trailing twelve months to H1 2026. The data does not say why the model output fell by this much beyond the rate change, so we cannot isolate the cause.

As background, the company's preliminary Q3 results were published on 2026-10-19: operating profit of ₩52.0B on revenue of ₩986.5B, covered in the previous report.

What it changes for the thesis

The thesis in the previous report was fast growth with rising profit, but a thin trailing operating margin of 3.4%, negative free cash flow (₩190.3B on a trailing basis) and heavy borrowing. None of that has changed. The company published no new operating or balance sheet data.

The previous report noted that the model had not yet incorporated the Q3 figures, and the data still shows trailing figures to H1 2026. So the model cut reflects the model's assumptions, not fresh evidence about the business. The strong Q3 quarter still supports the growth side, and the cautions on margin and cash flow remain open.

What it changes for the valuation

A model estimate based on the assumptions shown now puts fair value at ₩21,313 per share in the base case, with a bear case of ₩2,823 and a bull case of ₩49,082, at a 13.0% discount rate. The previous range was ₩7,868 / ₩33,822 / ₩71,473.

The latest close was ₩232,000 on 2026-10-20, down from ₩251,000 on 2026-10-16 in the previous report. It is still about 4.7 times the model's bull case. On the latest data the P/E is 107.5x and the P/B 13.0x. Peer P/E ranges from 20.7x to 59.9x, with Taihan Cable & Solution not available, so Gaon Cable remains above every peer on P/E. The model is an estimate, not a price target.

Closing view

The change is a lower model estimate, not a new company event. It moves the model further from the market price, and the previous report already found the valuation demanding. The operating momentum from the strong Q3 is real, but the model does not yet include those figures, and the margin, cash flow and borrowing questions are unresolved. The evidence stays mixed: strong recent results are set against a share price well above the model range. A fuller read will depend on the full Q3 filing and updated balance sheet data.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩2,823
-99%
Base
₩21,313
-91%
Bull
₩49,082
-79%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 13%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeGaon Cable: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 37% to ₩21,313 per Share
  2. Oct 19, 2026Update noteEarningsGaon Cable Q3 2026 Preliminary Results: Operating Profit Roughly Doubles Year on Year
  3. Oct 13, 2026InitiationGaon Cable: Strong Revenue Growth and a 391.7% One-Year Share Gain Meet Thin Margins and High Multiples

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information