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JONBUR Research · Update note

SK hynix · 000660 · Semiconductors

SK hynix: Model fair value estimate rises 60% to ₩872,969 base

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved +60% (₩543,989 → ₩872,969 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model's base fair value estimate for SK hynix rose 60% to ₩872,969 per share from ₩543,989. The share price is still above the base estimate, but the gap is much narrower than in the previous report.

Written Oct 21, 2026 · Data as of Oct 20, 2026 · 2 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model estimate moved from ₩543,989 to ₩872,969 per share in the base case, a rise of 60%. No filings accompany this event, and no smaller recent events are listed.

The model still uses a DCF method and trailing data to H1 2026. The discount rate is 12.5% versus 12.6% before, a small change. The inputs are labelled as the same period as before (TTM to H1 2026), so the data does not show what drove the jump, and we cannot say whether it comes from revised earnings inputs or other assumptions. Trailing figures in the data are revenue of ₩189.2T, operating income of ₩128.7T and a 68.0% operating margin.

News on 2026-10-21 reported that the company completed its ₩40T share buyback one month ahead of schedule. Some headlines raised concerns about the end of this market support. These are news reports, and we have no filing excerpts to confirm the details.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report (2026-10-20) said the earnings recovery was intact, but that the share price was falling sharply and the market seemed to assume peak-like earnings would last. The new estimate does not change the earnings picture. It does change the earlier point that the model sat far below the market price.

The volatility theme still holds. The share price fell to ₩1,223,000 on 2026-10-20, down 34.1% over one month. Foreign ownership is 48.8%, against 52.4% sixty days earlier, and foreign investors were net sellers of about ₩16.1T over 20 days. The open question of whether peak-like earnings will last is not answered by this model change.

What it changes for the valuation

The model now gives a model estimate based on the assumptions shown (DCF, 12.5% rate, trailing H1 2026 data) of ₩676,946 bear, ₩872,969 base and ₩1,140,647 bull per share. The previous report had ₩397,998 bear, ₩543,989 base and ₩744,567 bull.

The share price of ₩1,223,000 (2026-10-20) is above the base and the bull case's lower reach, and sits within about 7.2% of the bull estimate of ₩1,140,647. The earlier gap to the bull case was far larger. Trailing P/E is 5.5, P/B 3.4 and P/S 4.7. EV/EBITDA is not available. This is a model estimate, not a price target, and it is sensitive to its assumptions.

Closing view

The evidence is mixed. The higher model range shows that the market price is now less far from the model's assumptions than before, which softens the earlier point about a large gap. But the model's change is not explained by any filing, and the market still appears to price in stronger earnings than the base case. Heavy foreign selling and the end of the buyback add uncertainty about demand for the shares. Q3 results, once published, will test the assumptions behind these figures.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩676,946
-47%
Base
₩872,969
-32%
Bull
₩1,140,647
-11%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 12.5%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeSK hynix: Model fair value estimate rises 60% to ₩872,969 base
  2. Oct 20, 2026Update noteNewsSK hynix: Record Q3 profit expectations meet a sharp market sell-off
  3. Oct 13, 2026InitiationSK hynix: Record Earnings Run Meets a Sharp Share Price Pullback

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information