SK hynixSK하이닉스
000660 · KOSPI · ₩HYNIX · SK하이닉스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩883,705
vs the current price (₩1,341,000)
- Enterprise value
- ₩579T
- Equity value
- ₩646T
- WACC
- 12.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩684,217
- −49.0%
- Base
- ₩883,705
- −34.1%
- Bull
- ₩1,156,678
- −13.7%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Start from
Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (32.0%).
Revenue growth
- 25%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (29.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (29.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 14%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (29.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (29.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (29.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 32%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 21.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 27.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 16.6%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 1.52
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 1.78, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩189T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩67T
- Shares
- 730,492,365
- Share price
- ₩1,341,000
- Market cap
- ₩980T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩33T | ₩66T | ₩97T | ₩236T | ₩283T | ₩322T | ₩350T | ₩360T |
| Growth | −26.6% | 102.0% | 46.8% | 25.0% | 19.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩7.7T | ₩23T | ₩47T | ₩76T | ₩90T | ₩103T | ₩112T | ₩115T |
| EBIT margin | −23.6% | 35.5% | 48.6% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩5.6T | ₩17T | ₩34T | ₩55T | ₩66T | ₩75T | ₩81T | ₩84T |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩51T | ₩61T | ₩70T | ₩76T | ₩78T |
| − Capital spending | ₩8.8T | ₩17T | ₩29T | ₩64T | ₩77T | ₩87T | ₩95T | ₩98T |
| − Working capital | ₩77B | −₩2T | −₩3.1T | ₩7.9T | ₩7.7T | ₩6.6T | ₩4.5T | ₩1.7T |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩34T | ₩43T | ₩51T | ₩58T | ₩62T |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.890 | 0.792 | 0.704 | 0.627 | 0.558 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩30T | ₩34T | ₩36T | ₩36T | ₩35T |
Terminal value ₩731T, worth ₩408T today: 70% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩359,183 a share)Now 3.73× | ₩367,4451.02× | ₩672,5601.87× | ₩1,776,0004.94× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩221,721 a share)Now 6.05× | ₩1,341,0006.05× | ₩1,950,6498.80× | ₩6,436,30729.0× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩216,481 a share)Now 6.19× | ₩1,309,3076.05× | ₩1,904,5488.80× | ₩6,284,19429.0× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.4% | ₩914,644 | ₩944,679 | ₩977,888 | ₩1,014,804 | ₩1,056,091 |
| 11.9% | ₩872,293 | ₩898,992 | ₩928,367 | ₩960,844 | ₩996,948 |
| 12.4% | ₩833,751 | ₩857,592 | ₩883,705 | ₩912,434 | ₩944,199 |
| 12.9% | ₩798,535 | ₩819,912 | ₩843,230 | ₩868,771 | ₩896,872 |
| 13.4% | ₩766,240 | ₩785,480 | ₩806,390 | ₩829,199 | ₩854,182 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩980T
- Enterprise value
- ₩910T
- P/E
- 6.0×
- P/B
- 3.7×
- P/S
- 5.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.2%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩651,000 | ₩173,900 | ₩141,500 | ₩75,000 | ₩131,000 |
| Market cap | ₩476T | ₩127T | ₩103T | ₩55T | ₩96T |
| P/E | 11.1× | 6.4× | — | 24.6× | 10.0× |
| P/B | 3.9× | 1.7× | 1.9× | 0.9× | 1.5× |
| P/S | 4.9× | 1.9× | 3.2× | 1.2× | 2.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.5% | 1.3% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK hynix | 6.0× | 3.7× | 5.2× | — | 0.2% |
| DB HiTek | 11.9× | 1.7× | 2.7× | — | 0.9% |
| Fadu | — | 37.7× | 13.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Hana Micron | 13.8× | 4.3× | 1.1× | — | 0.2% |
| Jeju Semiconductor | 9.5× | 4.9× | 3.3× | — | 0.0% |
| SFA Semicon | — | 3.0× | 3.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Hana Materials | 15.7× | 1.6× | 3.0× | — | 0.6% |
| Similar companies (median) | 12.9× | 3.6× | 3.1× | — | 0.1% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: SK hynix / SK하이닉스 / 000660 / KRX:000660
Source: KRX statistical information