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JONBUR Research · Update note

Sebang Global Battery · 004490 · Batteries

Sebang Global Battery: Model Fair Value Estimate Roughly Doubles to ₩205,339 Base Case

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved +98% (₩103,541 → ₩205,339 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model estimate of fair value for Sebang Global Battery rose 98% in the base case, from ₩103,541 to ₩205,339 per share. The data behind it shows no new filing explaining the move, so the change comes from the model rather than from a disclosed company event.

Written Oct 21, 2026 · Data as of Oct 20, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model estimate moved from ₩103,541 to ₩205,339 per share in the base case, a change of 98%. The method is unchanged: a 5-year discounted cash flow at a 7.5% rate, based on trailing figures to H1 2026.

The bear case moved from ₩41,004 to ₩124,019 and the bull case from ₩212,873 to ₩345,804. No filing excerpts were provided with this event, and no smaller recent events are listed as background. The data does not say what input change drove the revision.

The latest financial figures show trailing revenue of ₩2.1T, operating income of ₩135.6B, net income of ₩142.5B and free cash flow of ₩280.0B. Borrowings are ₩285.8B against cash of ₩293.5B. The previous report used the same trailing period, so the data does not show a new reporting period behind the change.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described a profitable, modestly leveraged company at low multiples, with margins and returns below their 2024 peak. Nothing in the data changes that picture. The operating margin is still 6.4% against 8.7% in 2024, and ROE is 9.0% against 12.2%.

The previous report also noted that the July 2026 filings on a rights offering and a share acquisition were unexplained. They remain unexplained in the data, and no new details were provided. A change in the model estimate does not resolve those open questions or the profitability trend.

What it changes for the valuation

The model now gives a model estimate based on the assumptions shown of ₩205,339 per share in the base case, ₩124,019 in the bear case and ₩345,804 in the bull case. The previous report had ₩103,541 base, ₩41,004 bear and ₩212,873 bull.

The share price was ₩61,900 on 2026-10-20, up from ₩60,300 at the previous report. Previously the price sat between the bear and base values. It now sits below even the new bear value of ₩124,019. The range remains wide, from ₩124,019 to ₩345,804, which shows how sensitive the result is to the assumptions.

Current multiples are broadly unchanged: P/E 6.0x, P/B 0.5x, P/S 0.4x and a dividend yield of 4.3%. Enterprise value is ₩524.2B. A near doubling of the model output with no matching change in the company's reported figures suggests the estimate is driven heavily by inputs, so it should be read with caution.

Closing view

The evidence shows a model revision, not a new company event. The underlying business data is the same as in the previous report: profitable, low multiples, solid free cash flow, but margins below their 2024 level and open questions about the rights offering and share acquisition. The higher model estimate widens the gap to the share price, but the data does not explain the revision, and a value that moves by 98% without a change in reported figures points to high sensitivity to assumptions. This note weighs the evidence and does not offer a recommendation.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩124,019
+121%
Base
₩205,339
+267%
Bull
₩345,804
+518%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.5%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeSebang Global Battery: Model Fair Value Estimate Roughly Doubles to ₩205,339 Base Case
  2. Oct 19, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Sebang Global Battery: Low Multiples and Steady Cash Flow, With Margins Below Their 2024 Peak

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information