Ask Warren

JONBUR Research · Update note

Samsung Electro-Mechanics · 009150 · Electronic components

Samsung Electro-Mechanics: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 40% to ₩84,134 Per Share

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved -40% (₩140,142 → ₩84,134 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model estimate of fair value fell 40% to a base of ₩84,134 per share from ₩140,142, with no new filing explaining the change. The gap to the share price, already wide, is now wider.

Written Oct 21, 2026 · Data as of Oct 20, 2026 · 1 view

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

XfWATGr/in@

What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model's base fair value moved from ₩140,142 to ₩84,134 per share, a 40% fall. The bear case is now ₩49,600 and the bull case ₩135,146, against ₩99,699 and ₩198,244 in the previous report. The discount rate is unchanged at 12.3% and the results period is the same, trailing to H1 2026.

No filings were attached to this event, and the data does not say what drove the change. Trailing revenue of ₩12.5T and operating margin of 9.8% look the same as in the last report, so the reason is not visible in the reported figures we hold. Recent news on 2026-10-21 reports that Nvidia is adding the company to its substrate supply chain and that a dedicated line is planned. This is press coverage only and we have no filing details sizing it.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described an earnings recovery with the price running ahead of profits, and said the substrate order news supported the operating story but did not change reported numbers. That still holds. The lower model estimate does not contradict the recovery. It says that on trailing results the model supports even less value than before.

The news about Nvidia is supportive of demand, but it is not in the trailing figures the model uses. The key test remains the next earnings release, to see if orders and pricing reach revenue and margins.

What it changes for the valuation

The model now gives ₩49,600 (bear), ₩84,134 (base) and ₩135,146 (bull) per share, a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a price target. The previous range was ₩99,699 to ₩198,244, with a base of ₩140,142.

The latest close in our data is ₩1,155,000 (2026-10-20), and even the bull case is well below it. Market multiples are P/E 85.6, P/B 8.4 and P/S 6.9. The price therefore reflects expectations far above what trailing earnings support in this model. Why the estimate changed is not available in our data.

Closing view

The cut widens an already large gap between the model estimate and the market price, but it comes without a new filing or a change in reported results, so the cause is unclear. The model uses trailing results and does not include the Nvidia-related news, so it may understate future earnings if the orders materialize, while the price already assumes a lot. Evidence from the next earnings release and any filings that size the orders will matter more than this model move.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩49,600
-96%
Base
₩84,134
-92%
Bull
₩135,146
-88%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 12.3%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeSamsung Electro-Mechanics: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 40% to ₩84,134 Per Share
  2. Oct 20, 2026Update noteNewsSamsung Electro-Mechanics: Large Substrate Order News Arrives as Shares Fall Below Last Report's Level
  3. Oct 13, 2026InitiationSamsung Electro-Mechanics: Share Price Up Sharply as Earnings Recover, Multiples Far Above Recent Levels

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information