Samsung Electro-Mechanics삼성전기
009150 · KOSPI · ₩SEMCO · 삼성전기
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩84,619
vs the current price (₩1,306,000)
- Enterprise value
- ₩6.6T
- Equity value
- ₩6.6T
- WACC
- 12.2%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 94% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
- Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩15T, operating profit ₩2.2T (14.7% margin) (2 brokers). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
- Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩19T, operating profit ₩4.4T (22.5% margin) (2 brokers). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
- Margins ranged from 7.1% to 15.4% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- Today's P/E is 100.6× against a typical 16.8× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩49,857
- −96.2%
- Base
- ₩84,619
- −93.5%
- Bull
- ₩136,014
- −89.6%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Start from
Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (9.4%).
Revenue growth
- 6.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 9.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 8.8%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 11.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 22.6%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 1.48
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 1.72, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩12T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩227B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩54B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩299B
- Shares
- 77,600,680
- incl. 2,906,984 preferred
- Share price
- ₩1,306,000
- Market cap
- ₩99T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩8.9T | ₩10T | ₩11T | ₩13T | ₩14T | ₩15T | ₩15T | ₩16T |
| Growth | −5.5% | 15.5% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩639B | ₩735B | ₩913B | ₩1.2T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.5T |
| EBIT margin | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩464B | ₩533B | ₩662B | ₩902B | ₩952B | ₩996B | ₩1T | ₩1.1T |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.4T |
| − Capital spending | ₩1.3T | ₩827B | ₩1.2T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.7T |
| − Working capital | ₩173B | ₩436B | ₩201B | ₩177B | ₩165B | ₩145B | ₩125B | ₩103B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩421B | ₩466B | ₩515B | ₩559B | ₩603B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.891 | 0.794 | 0.707 | 0.630 | 0.561 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩375B | ₩370B | ₩364B | ₩352B | ₩338B |
Terminal value ₩8.5T, worth ₩4.8T today: 73% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩131,836 a share)Now 9.91× | ₩156,3741.19× | ₩197,3281.50× | ₩892,0626.77× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩12,984 a share)Now 100.6× | ₩117,7019.07× | ₩218,47116.8× | ₩371,43728.6× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩24,158 a share)Now 54.1× | ₩218,9999.07× | ₩406,49316.8× | ₩691,10828.6× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.2% | ₩90,062 | ₩92,428 | ₩95,035 | ₩97,925 | ₩101,149 |
| 11.7% | ₩85,250 | ₩87,303 | ₩89,553 | ₩92,032 | ₩94,780 |
| 12.2% | ₩80,879 | ₩82,668 | ₩84,619 | ₩86,757 | ₩89,113 |
| 12.7% | ₩76,894 | ₩78,459 | ₩80,157 | ₩82,009 | ₩84,039 |
| 13.2% | ₩73,246 | ₩74,619 | ₩76,104 | ₩77,715 | ₩79,471 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩98T
- Enterprise value
- ₩97T
- P/E
- 96.8×
- P/B
- 9.5×
- P/S
- 7.8×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.2%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩255,000 | ₩123,800 | ₩153,200 | ₩130,500 | ₩197,500 |
| Market cap | ₩19T | ₩9.2T | ₩11T | ₩9.7T | ₩15T |
| P/E | 27.0× | 13.6× | 27.1× | 9.7× | 14.0× |
| P/B | 2.0× | 1.1× | 1.5× | 1.3× | 2.2× |
| P/S | 1.7× | 0.9× | 1.3× | 1.0× | 1.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.9% | 1.5% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | 96.8× | 9.5× | 7.8× | — | 0.2% |
| Doosan | 39.2× | 5.5× | 0.7× | — | 0.4% |
| Hanwha Systems | 71.2× | 2.8× | 3.0× | — | 0.8% |
| LG Innotek | 13.1× | 1.4× | 0.4× | — | 0.5% |
| Isupetasys | 35.4× | 8.3× | 5.4× | — | 0.0% |
| Daeduck Electronics | 44.8× | 7.0× | 5.0× | — | 0.4% |
| Simmtech | — | 7.6× | 2.9× | — | 0.1% |
| Similar companies (median) | 39.2× | 6.3× | 3.0× | — | 0.4% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Samsung Electro-Mechanics / 삼성전기 / 009150 / KRX:009150
Source: KRX statistical information