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HDC Holdings · 012630 · Financials

HDC Holdings: Earnings Recovery and Low Multiples, Alongside a Sharp One-Month Share Price Drop

Why this report

Start of coverage: one of the 300 largest companies, written once its financial statements were in.

HDC Holdings' filed financials show operating income rising from ₩344.7B in 2024 to ₩648.9B in 2025, with trailing twelve-month (TTM) operating income to H1 2026 at ₩736.3B. The shares trade at 0.4x book value and 3.0x earnings, but fell 23.0% over the past month, and recent filings include an unfaithful disclosure designation and a news item about an employee tax matter.

Written Oct 13, 2026 · Data as of Oct 12, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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Thesis

The data supports an improving earnings picture. Net income rose from ₩113.1B in 2023 to ₩146.4B in 2024 and ₩301.0B in 2025, and the TTM figure is ₩440.8B. Operating margin moved from 5.3% in 2023 to 12.3% on a TTM basis, and ROE reached 15.1%. The market is pricing the shares at a P/E of 3.0 and a P/B of 0.4, below most listed peers shown.

What the data does not settle is why the share price fell 23.0% in one month after rising 8.7% over three months and 26.4% over one year. The filings list a share cancellation decision (2026-10-08), several debt guarantee decisions for third parties at a subsidiary, and an unfaithful disclosure designation (2026-09-07). Investor flow, foreign ownership and short balance data are not available, so we cannot say who was trading. Low multiples may reflect perceived risks rather than a simple mispricing, and the data cannot tell us which.

Business overview

HDC Holdings is a KOSPI-listed company classified in the Financials sector, founded on 1977-10-14 and listed on 1996-10-16. It has 59,741,721 listed shares and a market capitalization of about ₩1.3T at a close of ₩21,900 on 2026-10-12. The CEOs are listed as 정몽규 and 도기탁 (co-representative directors).

Revenue has grown from ₩4.78T in 2021 to ₩6.58T in 2025. Annual growth was 17.1% in 2023, 4.9% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025. TTM revenue to H1 2026 is ₩5.98T. The data does not break revenue down by business segment.

Financial analysis

All figures below come from filed financial statements (DART), consolidated where available.

Revenue was ₩6.58T in 2025, up 6.2%. Operating income was ₩648.9B (9.9% margin) versus ₩344.7B (5.6%) in 2024. Net income was ₩301.0B versus ₩146.4B. ROE rose from 5.6% in 2024 to 10.8% in 2025. In 2022 the company posted a net loss of ₩5.1B, with ROE of -0.2%.

On a TTM basis to H1 2026, revenue is ₩5.98T, operating income ₩736.3B (12.3% margin), net income ₩440.8B (7.4% margin) and ROE 15.1%. Liabilities to equity is 120.5%. Cash is ₩1.13T against borrowings of ₩871.9B, and free cash flow is ₩791.9B. The TTM revenue figure is below the 2025 full-year figure, and the data does not explain the difference.

Valuation

At ₩21,900, the shares trade at a P/E of 3.0, P/B of 0.4, P/S of 0.2 and a dividend yield of 1.7%. Enterprise value is ₩1.05T; EV/EBITDA is not available. At the end of 2025, P/E was 3.7 and P/B 0.4, so multiples are similar to the recent past; earlier year-end multiples are not available.

Peers shown have P/E of 3.5 to 5.2 (Mirae Asset Securities 4.4, NH Investment & Securities 5.2, Samsung Securities 5.1, KIWOOM Securities 3.5) and P/B of 0.7 to 1.0, with kakaopay an outlier at P/E 58.0 and P/B 2.6. HDC's P/B of 0.4 is below all of them.

The valuation model uses the excess method (P/B versus ROE) at a 5.9% rate, based on TTM to H1 2026. It gives a base estimate of ₩69,285 per share, with a bear case of ₩33,017 and a bull case of ₩130,914. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target, and it relies heavily on the sustained ROE of 15.1%. Even the bear case is above the current price, which shows how sensitive the result is to those assumptions.

Catalysts

  • The share cancellation decision filed on 2026-10-08 could affect the share count, though the filing details are not in the data.
  • A series of major sales or supply contract filings between 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-30, including amendments, may signal ongoing business activity.
  • The next financial statement filing will show whether the TTM operating margin of 12.3% holds.
  • The 2026-10-06 filing on a major management matter relevant to investors may carry further detail once it is analyzed.
  • Investor flow and foreign ownership data, currently unavailable, would help explain the recent one-month price decline.

Risks

  • The share price fell 23.0% in one month, and the data does not give a cause.
  • The company was designated an unfaithful disclosure corporation (불성실공시법인지정) on 2026-09-07, which raises questions about disclosure practices.
  • Subsidiary decisions to provide debt guarantees to third parties on 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-28 may add contingent liabilities, with amounts not shown in the data.
  • A news headline dated 2026-10-13 mentions a call to investigate possible tax evasion tied to an HDC employee, a reputational and legal risk whose outcome is unknown.
  • Earnings history is uneven, with a net loss in 2022 and net margin of only 7.4% on a TTM basis, so the recent improvement may not persist.

Closing view

The filed numbers show clear improvement in profit, margins and returns, and the shares trade at low multiples relative to both book value and listed peers. Against that, the recent price drop, the disclosure designation, third-party guarantees and the news headline suggest the market is weighing governance and risk questions that the data cannot resolve. The model estimate is far above the current price, but it depends on the assumptions shown, especially the high current ROE. The evidence is mixed rather than conclusive.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩33,017
+58%
Base
₩69,285
+232%
Bull
₩130,914
+528%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the P/B vs ROE (excess return) model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 5.9%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 13, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (300 largest)HDC Holdings: Earnings Recovery and Low Multiples, Alongside a Sharp One-Month Share Price Drop

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information