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JONBUR Research · Update note

Kumkang Kind · 014280 · Steel & Materials

Kumkang Kind: Model fair value estimate rises to ₩2,305 per share, no new filing behind it

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved +27% (₩1,901 → ₩2,407 per share)Oct 25, 2026

The event is a model fair value move of +27% (₩1,901 to ₩2,407 per share), but the model's current base case is ₩2,305, so the figures differ. The change comes from model inputs, not company news, and the base case is still below the ₩4,125 share price.

Written Oct 28, 2026 · Data as of Oct 27, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

Our model estimate of fair value was revised up by 27% on 2026-10-25, from ₩1,901 to ₩2,407 per share. The model's current base case is ₩2,305, so the move was partly reversed by the latest data date. No new filings accompany the change. The share price closed at ₩4,125 on 2026-10-27, down 5.5% over one month and 32.9% over one year.

What it changes for the thesis

The thesis in the previous report is unchanged. Operating profit is recovering, with a TTM operating margin of 3.7% against 1.3% in 2025. Net income is still negative at -₩17.3B, free cash flow is -₩70.8B, and borrowings of ₩596.6B compare with cash of ₩152.3B. Liabilities are 147% of equity. The previous report said the model's result was fragile because of cash flow sensitivity, and this move supports that view: the estimate swung by a large amount with no change in the business facts.

What it changes for the valuation

The model estimate based on the assumptions shown is now ₩2,305 per share in the base case, ₩0 in the bear case and ₩44,050 in the bull case. The previous report had ₩1,901 base, ₩0 bear and ₩42,046 bull. The base case is therefore higher than before but still below the ₩4,125 share price. The stock trades at 0.3x book value and 0.1x sales, with an EV/EBITDA of 6.1x. A range from zero to ₩44,050 is too wide to give a precise reading. It is a model estimate, not a target or a signal to buy or sell.

Closing view

The evidence shows a company whose operations are improving but whose profit and cash flow are not yet. The higher estimate reflects model inputs rather than new information, and the zero bear case shows how much rests on cash flow and debt. The two successive large moves suggest the model output should be read cautiously. Future filings on net income, cash flow and financing will matter most.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩0
-100%
Base
₩2,305
-41%
Bull
₩44,050
+1022%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 4.8%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 28, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeKumkang Kind: Model fair value estimate rises to ₩2,305 per share, no new filing behind it
  2. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeKumkang Kind: Model fair value estimate falls to ₩1,901 per share from ₩18,658
  3. Oct 19, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Kumkang Kind: Operating profit recovers in 2026 while net losses and negative free cash flow persist

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information