Logen: Model Fair Value Estimate Halves to ₩4,218 Per Share as Discount Rate Falls and Bear Case Drops to Zero

What happened

The model re-ran its discounted cash flow on trailing figures to H1 2026. The base case fell from ₩8,394 to ₩4,218 per share, a 50% drop. The bear case went from ₩4,250 to ₩0, and the bull case went from ₩15,567 to ₩23,441. The discount rate used is now 4.9%, against 7.5% before.

The data pack does not include a new earnings release or any filing explaining the change. Trailing figures are the same period as before: revenue of ₩792.0B, operating income of ₩12.6B (a 1.6% margin) and net income of ₩5.6B. Trailing free cash flow is now ₩34.3B, whereas the previous report cited ₩46.7B. This lower cash flow figure is a likely contributor to the lower estimate, though the data does not say so directly.

As background, a 5%+ holding report on 2026-10-21 showed Daemyung Chemical at 67.75%, unchanged. An extraordinary shareholders' meeting result was also filed on 2026-10-19. The filing contents are not available to us, so we cannot say what was decided.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described a low-margin business with falling profit, a 0.2x book multiple and a model estimate far above the price, resting on assumptions that earnings recover. This update supports the caution in that thesis. The model's own output is now much less supportive and far more uncertain, with a zero bear case.

The core facts are unchanged: flat revenue near ₩0.8T, margins well below the 2021 peak, and ROE of 1.5%. The previous report also flagged registration and shareholder meeting filings whose purpose was not in the data. That is still true. The unchanged 67.75% holding by Daemyung Chemical shows no shift in control, but we cannot link it to the registration filings.

What it changes for the valuation

Our model estimate based on the assumptions shown is now ₩0 bear, ₩4,218 base and ₩23,441 bull per share. The previous report had ₩4,250 bear, ₩8,394 base and ₩15,567 bull. The share price is ₩1,572. The base case is still about 2.7 times the price, but it is half the earlier figure.

The spread from ₩0 to ₩23,441 shows how sensitive the result is to cash flow assumptions when profit is thin. Current multiples are P/E 15.9, P/B 0.2 and P/S 0.1. Enterprise value is ₩295.5B, much higher than the ₩46.8B in the previous report. Borrowings are ₩253.3B against cash of ₩43.2B. The model estimate is not a price target or a signal to act.

Closing view

The evidence shows the model's support for a higher value has weakened sharply, even though the base case is still above the market price. The result depends on cash flow assumptions that recent results do not confirm, and the zero bear case reflects that. Debt of ₩253.3B against thin profit adds to the uncertainty. Without filing details on the registration and the shareholders' meeting, investors would want the next results and those documents before drawing conclusions.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear

₩0

-100%

Base

₩4,218

+166%

Bull

₩23,441

+1381%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 4.9%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

• 5%+ holding reportOct 21, 2026
• Results of Extraordinary Shareholders' MeetingOct 19, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportOct 13, 2026
• Amended: Shareholders' meeting calledSep 30, 2026
• Shareholders' meeting calledSep 30, 2026
• Determination of Shareholder Register Closure Period or Record DateSep 30, 2026
• Notice of shareholders' meetingSep 30, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportSep 28, 2026
• ProspectusSep 18, 2026
• Securities registration statementSep 18, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportSep 9, 2026
• Amended attachment: Securities registration statementSep 8, 2026
• Daily prices up to 2026-10-20
• Financial statements, trailing 12 months as of H1 2026
• Our fair value model, statements as of TTM to H1 2026

Report history

1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeLogen: Model Fair Value Estimate Halves to ₩4,218 Per Share as Discount Rate Falls and Bear Case Drops to Zero
2. Oct 18, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Logen: Thin Margins and Low Book Multiple as Earnings Soften, With Filings Pointing to Corporate Activity