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JONBUR Research · Update note

Systems Technology · 039440 · Machinery

Systems Technology: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises to ₩17,640 Per Share, Still Below Market Price

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved +160% (₩6,777 → ₩17,640 per share)Oct 22, 2026

The model estimate of fair value for Systems Technology rose 160% to ₩17,640 per share in the base case from ₩6,777 two days earlier. The share price of ₩27,300 is still above even the base case, but the gap with the model is much narrower.

Written Oct 21, 2026 · Data as of Oct 20, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

On Oct 22, 2026 the model estimate moved from ₩6,777 to ₩17,640 per share in the base case, a rise of 160%. The bear case is now ₩12,218 and the bull case ₩27,104. The model is still a 5-year discounted cash flow at a 7.8% rate, using trailing data to H1 2026.

No new filings accompany this change, and the data does not explain what drove the revision. The inputs shown (trailing revenue of ₩303.1B, operating income of ₩12.4B, free cash flow of ₩-55.3B) match those in the previous report, so the reason for the change is not available in the data. No smaller recent events are listed.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report, dated Oct 20, described a sharp price rally alongside weaker fundamentals: operating margin of 4.1% against 8.2% in 2024, and negative free cash flow. Nothing in the data changes those facts. Revenue, margins and the conservative balance sheet (liabilities at 18.5% of equity, borrowings of ₩2.0B against cash of ₩43.8B) are the same.

The thesis that the price implies stronger cash flows than the filed numbers show still holds, but the model revision weakens the size of that gap. The earlier note also said there was no clear earnings driver for the rally, and that remains true. The model change is an assumption or method effect, not new business evidence, as far as the data shows.

What it changes for the valuation

The model estimate, based on the assumptions shown, is now ₩12,218 (bear), ₩17,640 (base) and ₩27,104 (bull) per share. The previous figures were ₩2,752, ₩6,777 and ₩13,912. The share price closed at ₩27,300 on Oct 20, down from ₩30,000 cited in the previous report.

The price is about 55% above the base case, versus roughly 343% before. It is just above the bull case of ₩27,104, whereas earlier it was more than double the bull case. At this price, P/E is 21.9, P/B 1.4 and P/S 1.4, with enterprise value of about ₩352.3B. EV/EBITDA is not available.

The model estimate is not a target and not a signal to act. The size of the revision, 160% with no new filing behind it, shows how sensitive the estimate is to its inputs.

Closing view

The model now places the share price much closer to its estimated range than two days ago, but the data does not show why. The business facts are unchanged: lower margins, negative free cash flow, and a strong balance sheet. A revision of this size without new information suggests treating the model range as wide and assumption-dependent. The gap between price and base case has narrowed, though the price still sits at the top of the range.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩12,218
-56%
Base
₩17,640
-36%
Bull
₩27,104
-1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.8%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeSystems Technology: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises to ₩17,640 Per Share, Still Below Market Price
  2. Oct 20, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Systems Technology: Sharp Share Price Rally Meets Softer Earnings and a Wide Gap to the Model Estimate

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information