Systems Technology에스티아이
039440 · KOSDAQ · ₩039440 · 에스티아이
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩18,035
vs the current price (₩25,350)
- Enterprise value
- ₩210B
- Equity value
- ₩280B
- WACC
- 7.6%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩12,386
- −51.1%
- Base
- ₩18,035
- −28.9%
- Bull
- ₩27,996
- +10.4%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (7.4%).
Revenue growth
- -8.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -5.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -2.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 7.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 3.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 35%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.65
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.48, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩303B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩70B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩419M
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩561,944
- Shares
- 15,507,047
- Share price
- ₩25,350
- Market cap
- ₩393B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩319B | ₩334B | ₩328B | ₩279B | ₩264B | ₩257B | ₩258B | ₩265B |
| Growth | −24.4% | 4.6% | −1.8% | −8.1% | −5.3% | −2.5% | 0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩24B | ₩27B | ₩20B | ₩21B | ₩20B | ₩19B | ₩19B | ₩20B |
| EBIT margin | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩17B | ₩20B | ₩14B | ₩15B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩14B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩7.2B | ₩6.9B | ₩6.7B | ₩6.7B | ₩6.9B |
| − Capital spending | ₩4.5B | ₩18B | ₩9.7B | ₩9.2B | ₩8.7B | ₩8.5B | ₩8.5B | ₩8.8B |
| − Working capital | ₩20B | ₩27B | −₩68B | −₩8.6B | −₩5.2B | −₩2.3B | ₩180M | ₩2.7B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩22B | ₩17B | ₩14B | ₩12B | ₩9.7B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.929 | 0.864 | 0.803 | 0.746 | 0.693 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩20B | ₩15B | ₩11B | ₩8.8B | ₩6.7B |
Terminal value ₩213B, worth ₩147B today: 70% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩18,852 a share)Now 1.34× | ₩17,6640.94× | ₩26,1681.39× | ₩41,7312.21× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,248 a share)Now 20.3× | ₩7,1225.71× | ₩19,50715.6× | ₩39,89132.0× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,117 a share)Now 22.7× | ₩6,3715.71× | ₩17,44915.6× | ₩35,68232.0× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | ₩19,269 | ₩19,937 | ₩20,745 | ₩21,745 | ₩23,016 |
| 7.1% | ₩18,124 | ₩18,642 | ₩19,258 | ₩20,003 | ₩20,924 |
| 7.6% | ₩17,152 | ₩17,559 | ₩18,035 | ₩18,600 | ₩19,284 |
| 8.1% | ₩16,316 | ₩16,639 | ₩17,011 | ₩17,446 | ₩17,963 |
| 8.6% | ₩15,589 | ₩15,847 | ₩16,141 | ₩16,480 | ₩16,876 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩393B
- Enterprise value
- ₩322B
- P/E
- 20.3×
- P/B
- 1.3×
- P/S
- 1.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.6%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩30,450 | ₩17,450 | ₩29,550 | ₩11,950 | ₩21,200 |
| Market cap | ₩472B | ₩271B | ₩458B | ₩185B | ₩329B |
| P/E | 30.6× | 10.0× | 19.0× | 6.2× | 14.2× |
| P/B | 1.6× | 1.0× | 1.9× | 0.8× | 1.7× |
| P/S | 1.4× | 0.8× | 1.4× | 0.4× | 1.0× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.5% | 1.1% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Systems Technology | 20.3× | 1.3× | 1.3× | — | 0.6% |
| Doosan Enerbility | 208.4× | 4.6× | 2.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Hanmi Semiconductor | 82.2× | 24.4× | 33.1× | 74.0× | 0.4% |
| Jusung Engineering | 1,121.0× | 13.7× | 36.0× | 2,158.2× | 0.0% |
| Rainbow Robotics | 4,006.5× | 51.3× | 151.2× | — | 0.0% |
| EO Technics | 44.8× | 6.5× | 10.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Doosan Bobcat | 13,664.7× | 914.4× | 736.1× | — | 3.5% |
| Similar companies (median) | 664.7× | 19.1× | 34.5× | 1,116.1× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Systems Technology / 에스티아이 / 039440 / KRX:039440
Source: KRX statistical information