Systems Technology

039440 · KOSDAQ · ₩039440 · 에스티아이

₩25,350▲ ₩1,750 (7.42%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩18,035

vs the current price (₩25,350)

Enterprise value
₩210B
Equity value
₩280B
WACC
7.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩12,386
−51.1%
Base
₩18,035
−28.9%
Bull
₩27,996
+10.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (7.4%).

Revenue growth

  • -8.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -5.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 7.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 35%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.65

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.48, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩303B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩70B
+ Stakes and investments
₩419M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩561,944
Shares
15,507,047
Share price
₩25,350
Market cap
₩393B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩319B₩334B₩328B₩279B₩264B₩257B₩258B₩265B
Growth−24.4%4.6%−1.8%−8.1%−5.3%−2.5%0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩24B₩27B₩20B₩21B₩20B₩19B₩19B₩20B
EBIT margin7.5%8.2%6.0%7.4%7.4%7.4%7.4%7.4%
After-tax EBIT₩17B₩20B₩14B₩15B₩14B₩14B₩14B₩14B
+ Depreciation———₩7.2B₩6.9B₩6.7B₩6.7B₩6.9B
− Capital spending₩4.5B₩18B₩9.7B₩9.2B₩8.7B₩8.5B₩8.5B₩8.8B
− Working capital₩20B₩27B−₩68B−₩8.6B−₩5.2B−₩2.3B₩180M₩2.7B
Free cash flow———₩22B₩17B₩14B₩12B₩9.7B
Discount factor———0.9290.8640.8030.7460.693
Present value———₩20B₩15B₩11B₩8.8B₩6.7B

Terminal value ₩213B, worth ₩147B today: 70% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩18,852 a share)Now 1.34×₩17,6640.94×₩26,1681.39×₩41,7312.21×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,248 a share)Now 20.3×₩7,1225.71×₩19,50715.6×₩39,89132.0×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,117 a share)Now 22.7×₩6,3715.71×₩17,44915.6×₩35,68232.0×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.6%₩19,269₩19,937₩20,745₩21,745₩23,016
7.1%₩18,124₩18,642₩19,258₩20,003₩20,924
7.6%₩17,152₩17,559₩18,035₩18,600₩19,284
8.1%₩16,316₩16,639₩17,011₩17,446₩17,963
8.6%₩15,589₩15,847₩16,141₩16,480₩16,876

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩393B
Enterprise value
₩322B
P/E
20.3×
P/B
1.3×
P/S
1.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.6%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩30,450₩17,450₩29,550₩11,950₩21,200
Market cap₩472B₩271B₩458B₩185B₩329B
P/E30.6×10.0×19.0×6.2×14.2×
P/B1.6×1.0×1.9×0.8×1.7×
P/S1.4×0.8×1.4×0.4×1.0×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.5%1.1%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Systems Technology20.3×1.3×1.3×—0.6%
Doosan Enerbility208.4×4.6×2.1×—0.0%
Hanmi Semiconductor82.2×24.4×33.1×74.0×0.4%
Jusung Engineering1,121.0×13.7×36.0×2,158.2×0.0%
Rainbow Robotics4,006.5×51.3×151.2×—0.0%
EO Technics44.8×6.5×10.9×—0.0%
Doosan Bobcat13,664.7×914.4×736.1×—3.5%
Similar companies (median)664.7×19.1×34.5×1,116.1×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Systems Technology / 에스티아이 / 039440 / KRX:039440

Source: KRX statistical information