TOVISCo: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 39% as Discount Rate Rises to 7.5%

What happened

On 2026-10-22 our model estimate moved from a base case of ₩117,385 to ₩71,824 per share, a decline of 39%. The bear case fell to ₩30,044 from ₩51,452, and the bull case to ₩145,269 from ₩241,012. Both runs use trailing figures to H1 2026. The discount rate rose to 7.5% from 6.3%, which is the visible input that changed. No new filings or company events accompany this change, and no recent news headlines are available. The latest close in the data was ₩11,750 on 2026-10-20.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report's thesis is largely unchanged. It described a company with sharply higher revenue since 2021 and a 19.6% trailing ROE, valued at a P/E of 2.1 and a P/B of 0.4, with active buyback and cancellation filings. Those facts still hold: trailing revenue is ₩678.1B, operating margin 8.6%, and borrowings of ₩7.1B sit against cash of ₩58.7B in the latest data. The earlier caution also stands: growth slowed to 2.7% in 2025 from 39.4% in 2024, and the data does not explain why the market applies such low multiples. The model revision shows how sensitive the earlier estimate was to its assumptions, which the previous report had already flagged.

What it changes for the valuation

The new model estimate, based on the assumptions shown, is ₩71,824 per share in the base case, with a range of ₩30,044 (bear) to ₩145,269 (bull). The previous range was ₩51,452 / ₩117,385 / ₩241,012. Even the new bear case is well above the ₩11,750 close, and the base case is about 6.1 times the close. A gap this wide suggests the output depends heavily on cash flow assumptions and should be treated with caution. Current market multiples are unchanged by this revision: P/E 2.1, P/B 0.4, P/S 0.2 and a dividend yield of 3.0%. The estimate is not a target or a forecast of the share price.

Closing view

The revision cuts the model's estimate by more than a third without any change in the company's reported figures, which shows that a higher discount rate alone can move the result a great deal. The business data is the same as in the previous report: strong recent profitability and shareholder-return activity, set against stalled growth and unexplained low multiples. The model still sits far above the market price, but its sensitivity means it is better read as a gauge of assumptions than as evidence of mispricing. Readers should weigh it alongside the slowdown and the gaps in the available data.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear

₩30,044

+160%

Base

₩71,824

+522%

Bull

₩145,269

+1158%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.5%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

• 5%+ holding reportOct 12, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportSep 3, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportSep 3, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportSep 3, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportSep 3, 2026
• Amended: Share cancellation decisionAug 20, 2026
• Report on Treasury Stock Acquisition ResultsAug 20, 2026
• Half-year report (Jun 2026)Aug 14, 2026
• Amended: Share buyback decisionJul 31, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportJul 31, 2026
• Share cancellation decisionJul 29, 2026
• Preliminary earnings (consolidated)Jul 29, 2026
• Daily prices up to 2026-10-20
• Financial statements, trailing 12 months as of H1 2026
• Our fair value model, statements as of TTM to H1 2026

Report history

1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeTOVISCo: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut 39% as Discount Rate Rises to 7.5%
2. Oct 18, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)TOVISCo: Low Multiples, 19.6% ROE and Active Share Buyback Activity in the Latest Data