TOVISCo토비스
051360 · KOSDAQ · ₩051360 · 토비스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩73,033
vs the current price (₩11,550)
- Enterprise value
- ₩644B
- Equity value
- ₩684B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 532% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩11,550, the model needs an operating margin of 2.6% every year (it uses 6.3%).
- Margins ranged from −0.3% to 9.4% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
- Today's P/E is 2.0× against a typical 2.5× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩30,488
- +164.0%
- Base
- ₩73,033
- +532.3%
- Bull
- ₩148,197
- +1,183.1%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.3%).
Revenue growth
- 25%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (25% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (25% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 14%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (25% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (25% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (25% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 6.3%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 4.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 5.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 24.2%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.22, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩678B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩59B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩6B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩26B
- Shares
- 9,360,612
- Share price
- ₩11,550
- Market cap
- ₩108B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩447B | ₩624B | ₩640B | ₩848B | ₩1T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.3T |
| Growth | 36.3% | 39.4% | 2.7% | 25.0% | 19.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩26B | ₩58B | ₩57B | ₩53B | ₩64B | ₩73B | ₩79B | ₩81B |
| EBIT margin | 5.7% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩19B | ₩42B | ₩41B | ₩39B | ₩46B | ₩53B | ₩57B | ₩59B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩40B | ₩48B | ₩54B | ₩59B | ₩61B |
| − Capital spending | ₩55B | ₩17B | ₩18B | ₩50B | ₩60B | ₩68B | ₩74B | ₩76B |
| − Working capital | −₩5.6B | −₩13B | ₩12B | ₩41B | ₩40B | ₩34B | ₩24B | ₩9.1B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩12B | −₩5.9B | ₩4.6B | ₩18B | ₩34B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.808 | 0.752 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩12B | −₩5.1B | ₩3.7B | ₩14B | ₩24B |
Terminal value ₩884B, worth ₩619B today: 96% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩32,256 a share)Now 0.36× | ₩9,2150.29× | ₩11,8750.37× | ₩17,3160.54× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩5,668 a share)Now 2.04× | ₩9,5801.69× | ₩14,4382.55× | ₩94,69016.7× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩6,004 a share)Now 1.92× | ₩10,1491.69× | ₩15,2942.55× | ₩100,30816.7× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩80,285 | ₩85,640 | ₩92,188 | ₩100,393 | ₩110,987 |
| 6.9% | ₩72,422 | ₩76,601 | ₩81,612 | ₩87,740 | ₩95,415 |
| 7.4% | ₩65,820 | ₩69,130 | ₩73,033 | ₩77,712 | ₩83,432 |
| 7.9% | ₩60,203 | ₩62,855 | ₩65,939 | ₩69,576 | ₩73,933 |
| 8.4% | ₩55,370 | ₩57,517 | ₩59,982 | ₩62,849 | ₩66,227 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩108B
- Enterprise value
- ₩40B
- P/E
- 2.0×
- P/B
- 0.4×
- P/S
- 0.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 1.9%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩9,736 | ₩12,411 | ₩10,209 | ₩5,898 | ₩5,332 |
| Market cap | ₩91B | ₩116B | ₩96B | ₩55B | ₩50B |
| P/E | 2.1× | 2.0× | 8.2× | — | 39.6× |
| P/B | 0.3× | 0.5× | 0.5× | 0.3× | 0.3× |
| P/S | 0.1× | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 2.2% | 1.5% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOVISCo | 2.0× | 0.4× | 0.2× | — | 1.9% |
| Samsung Electronics | 9.5× | 2.5× | 2.9× | — | 0.7% |
| LG Electronics | 25.3× | 1.0× | 0.3× | — | 0.8% |
| Hanwha Vision | 17.0× | 2.1× | 1.1× | — | 0.0% |
| RFHIC | 41.3× | 3.7× | 6.7× | — | 0.8% |
| KMW | — | 5.0× | 8.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Intellian Technologies | 13.4× | 2.0× | 1.6× | — | 0.4% |
| Similar companies (median) | 17.0× | 2.3× | 2.3× | — | 0.5% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: TOVISCo / 토비스 / 051360 / KRX:051360
Source: KRX statistical information