Huons Global: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises 34.3% on Lower Discount Rate

What happened

This note is triggered by a change in our model, not by a new company filing. The model estimate moved from ₩55,862 to ₩73,249 on 2026-10-22 in the event feed, and the latest model run shows a base of ₩75,025 per share. The financial base is unchanged: trailing twelve months to H1 2026, revenue of ₩846.8B, operating income of ₩68.4B (margin 8.1%) and net income of ₩22.6B. The main input that changed is the discount rate, now 6.5% versus 7.5% before. The range is also wider: bear ₩21,544 (previously ₩27,017), bull ₩172,713 (previously ₩105,589). On 2026-10-21 a filing said the company was not designated an unfaithful disclosure company, with the designation deferred. The share price was ₩22,200 on 2026-10-23, up 4.2% over one month and down 62.1% over one year.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described a mid-sized pharma company with steady revenue but falling margins, low multiples and open governance questions. Nothing in the financial data has changed that picture: margins are still 8.1% and ROE 4.2%. The deferred designation is a small step relative to the earlier notice, but it is a deferral, not a clearance, so the disclosure concern is not resolved. The merger terms remain unavailable in the data, and no news headlines are available. The thesis stays mixed.

What it changes for the valuation

The model estimate is a base of ₩75,025 per share, with a bear of ₩21,544 and a bull of ₩172,713, against the previous base of ₩55,862 (bear ₩27,017, bull ₩105,589). This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target. The rise comes mostly from the lower discount rate, not from better earnings, and the bear case is lower than before. The much wider range shows how sensitive the result is to assumptions. The current price of ₩22,200 is slightly above the bear case and well below the base. Current multiples are P/E 12.4, P/B 0.5 and a dividend yield of 4.0%.

Closing view

The higher model estimate reflects a change in assumptions, not an improvement in reported results. Operating margins are still falling, and the merger and disclosure questions are not fully answered, so the gap between price and model value should be read with caution. The wider bear-to-bull range signals greater uncertainty, not greater confidence. The evidence remains mixed and does not point clearly either way.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear

₩21,544

-2%

Base

₩75,025

+242%

Bull

₩172,713

+687%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 6.5%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

• Not Designated as Unfaithful Disclosure Company (Designation Deferred)Oct 21, 2026
• Designation of Unfaithful Disclosure Company Notice (Retraction of 3 Disclosures)Sep 23, 2026
• Shareholders' meeting calledAug 26, 2026
• [Correction] Ad Hoc Disclosure Obligation-Related Matters (Fair Disclosure) (Notice of Withdrawal of Plan for In-Kind Dividend to Enhance Shareholder Value)Aug 26, 2026
• Amended: Shareholders' meeting calledAug 26, 2026
• Merger decisionAug 26, 2026
• Amended: Merger decisionAug 26, 2026
• Amended: Notice of shareholders' meetingAug 26, 2026
• Investor relations (IR) eventAug 24, 2026
• Half-year report (Jun 2026)Aug 14, 2026
• Cash dividend decisionAug 11, 2026
• Cash dividend decisionAug 11, 2026
• Daily prices up to 2026-10-23
• Financial statements, trailing 12 months as of H1 2026
• Our fair value model, statements as of TTM to H1 2026

Report history

1. Oct 26, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeHuons Global: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises 34.3% on Lower Discount Rate
2. Oct 19, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Huons Global: Shares Down 62.2% Over a Year as Earnings Soften and Disclosure Issues Surface