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JONBUR Research · Update note

DongKook Pharmaceutical · 086450 · Biotech & Pharma

DongKook Pharmaceutical: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises 69% to ₩33,780 Per Share

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved +69% (₩19,982 → ₩33,780 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our valuation model's base estimate for DongKook Pharmaceutical rose 69% to ₩33,780 per share from ₩19,982, with the same 7.5% discount rate and the same trailing figures to H1 2026. The share price (₩25,050 on 2026-10-20) now sits below the model's base case, reversing the position in the previous report.

Written Oct 21, 2026 · Data as of Oct 20, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

The model estimate was revised on 2026-10-22. The base case moved from ₩19,982 to ₩33,780 per share. The bear case moved from ₩9,739 to ₩19,903 and the bull case from ₩37,577 to ₩57,236.

The model's stated basis is unchanged: a discounted cash flow at 7.5%, using trailing figures to H1 2026. No new filing or business event is included in the data to explain the change. The available data does not say which input changed. Recent filings are routine (a shareholders' meeting call and a record-date notice on 2026-10-12). The share price moved from ₩25,300 to ₩25,050 over the period.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described a steadily growing mid-sized drug and consumer-health company, with revenue up from ₩594.2B in 2021 to ₩926.9B in 2025 and an operating margin of 9.1% to 11.0%. That picture is unchanged: trailing revenue is ₩979.6B, operating income ₩102.5B (10.5% margin) and net income ₩76.3B.

The earlier report noted that the market price already reflected more optimism than the model's base case. That point no longer holds in the same form. Since the financial data is the same, the change comes from the model, not from new operating evidence. The link between the recent price rise and earnings remains unquantified. Foreign ownership has also fallen further, to 9.6% from 15.7% sixty days ago, with foreign investors net sellers of about ₩18.8B over 20 days.

What it changes for the valuation

The model now gives a base estimate of ₩33,780 per share, a bear case of ₩19,903 and a bull case of ₩57,236. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target. The previous range was ₩9,739 / ₩19,982 / ₩37,577.

The share price of ₩25,050 is now between the bear and base cases, whereas before it was above the base case. Even the bear case is now close to the old base case. Such a large move with unchanged inputs shows how sensitive the model is to its assumptions, so the range remains wide.

Market multiples on the current price are P/E 14.8, P/B 1.6 and P/S 1.2, with a 0.8% dividend yield. EV/EBITDA is not available. The 52-week range is ₩16,260 to ₩31,250.

Closing view

The operating data is consistent with the earlier report: steady growth, stable margins and low leverage, with liabilities at 40.1% of equity. What changed is the model output, which rose sharply without a disclosed new event or new financial data. That makes the revision hard to interpret as a change in the company's fundamentals. The evidence supports caution in reading the higher estimate as new information, while the wide bear-to-bull range shows that the result depends heavily on the model's assumptions. Foreign selling, the planned rename and the shareholder meeting items remain points to follow, though the data does not show their financial effect.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩19,903
-15%
Base
₩33,780
+44%
Bull
₩57,236
+145%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.5%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeDongKook Pharmaceutical: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises 69% to ₩33,780 Per Share
  2. Oct 18, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (300 largest)DongKook Pharmaceutical: Steady Growth and a Sharp Share Price Rise, With a Model Estimate Below the Market Price

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information