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JONBUR Research · Update note

Ecopro · 086520 · Holding companies

Model Fair Value Estimate for Ecopro Cut 22% to ₩20,352 Base Case

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved -22% (₩26,235 → ₩20,352 per share)Oct 28, 2026

Our model estimate of Ecopro's fair value fell 22.4% to a base of ₩20,352 per share from ₩26,235, with the range also lower. The share price of ₩69,700 remains far above the whole range, so the gap to the model has not closed.

Written Oct 27, 2026 · Data as of Oct 26, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

No new company filing drove this change. The model was re-run on 2026-10-28 and its base value fell from ₩26,235 to ₩20,352 per share, a drop of 22%. The bear case moved from ₩17,490 to ₩13,568 and the bull case from ₩36,728 to ₩28,493. The method (net asset value), the 40% rate and the period (trailing results to H1 2026) are the same as before, and the data does not say which input changed. The only other recent item is a 5%+ holder report on 2026-10-21 showing founder 이동채 unchanged at 25.5%. Recent filings also include an exchangeable bond acquisition before maturity (2026-10-23), which the data does not describe further.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report (2026-10-20) described a mixed picture: recovering earnings (trailing operating income of ₩286.1B after a ₩293.0B loss in 2024), offset by negative free cash flow of -₩546.3B, large borrowings and pending capital-raising and acquisition filings. The lower model estimate does not change those reported figures. It does lean toward the cautious side of that thesis, because the asset-based estimate now gives the earnings recovery even less support. The CEO change discussed in the last report remains an open question, and nothing in the data resolves it.

What it changes for the valuation

The model now gives a model estimate based on the assumptions shown of ₩13,568 bear, ₩20,352 base and ₩28,493 bull per share, against ₩17,490, ₩26,235 and ₩36,728 in the previous report. The latest close of ₩69,700 is about 3.4 times the base value and well above even the bull case. The share price has also fallen from the ₩90,400 cited in the previous report, and the 1-month return is -13.0%. On market multiples, P/E is 67.3, P/B 4.2 and P/S 2.9, versus peers (mostly financial holding companies with a different business mix) at P/E of 3.1 to 9.2 and P/B of 0.6 to 1.9. The gap suggests the market prices in more than the asset-based assumptions capture, or that those assumptions are conservative. It is not a forecast.

Closing view

The lower model estimate is a change in our own assumptions or inputs, not a new company event, and it widens the distance between the model and the market without saying who is right. Reported earnings are recovering, but cash flow, borrowings, open capital filings and the leadership change still matter. Because the data does not show what drove the revision, it should be read as a cautious signal on asset-based value rather than a verdict on the business.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩13,568
-82%
Base
₩20,352
-73%
Bull
₩28,493
-62%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the sum-of-the-parts (net asset value) model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 40%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 27, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeModel Fair Value Estimate for Ecopro Cut 22% to ₩20,352 Base Case
  2. Oct 20, 2026Update noteCEO / control changeEcopro Replaces CEO Song Ho-jun With Choi Sang-woon, Citing Management Efficiency
  3. Oct 13, 2026InitiationEcopro: Profit Recovery From a Loss-Making 2024-2025, With a High P/E and Active Capital Filings

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information