KPX Holdings: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises Sharply to ₩212,981 per Share

What happened

The only event is a change in our model output. The base estimate moved from ₩7,636 to ₩212,981 per share, a rise of 2,689%. The bear case moved from ₩0 to ₩130,713 and the bull case from ₩102,095 to ₩364,016. The discount rate is unchanged at 7.5% and the period is still trailing twelve months to H1 2026. No new filings or news are listed for this period. The share price was ₩96,500 on 2026-10-20, versus ₩97,000 in the initiation report. The data does not explain what drove the change in model inputs.

What it changes for the thesis

The initiation report described a low-multiple company (P/E 1.3, P/B 0.3, dividend yield 5.4%) whose trailing net income of ₩302.3B was about 4.9 times operating income of ₩61.3B. It noted that negative free cash flow of -₩86.2B and a model estimate far below the price argued for caution. The profit and cash flow figures shown here are the same as before, so the core question is unchanged: whether the non-operating gains repeat. The earlier model result was a sign of sensitivity to cash flow assumptions, and this jump confirms that sensitivity rather than resolving it. Supportive facts such as the two share cancellation decisions and foreign ownership of 30.5% (28.3% sixty days ago) are also unchanged.

What it changes for the valuation

The model now gives a base estimate of ₩212,981, a bear case of ₩130,713 and a bull case of ₩364,016 per share. The share price of ₩96,500 is below even the bear case. Previously the price sat above the base (₩7,636) and just below the bull (₩102,095). This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target or a signal. A move of this size from unchanged reported financials suggests the result depends heavily on inputs, and the data does not say which ones changed. Enterprise value is now negative (-₩292.3B) because cash of ₩262.8B plus other items exceed market value and borrowings in this data, which may be affecting the model. The earlier estimate was ₩194.4B, so this also differs from the initiation report.

Closing view

The new estimate flips the model from well below the price to well above it, yet the reported profit, operating income and negative free cash flow are the same. Because the swing is so large without a new filing, we treat both the old and new figures with low confidence rather than as a firm view of value. The key open question is still whether the ₩302.3B trailing profit is repeatable. Readers should check the filings on the property sale and dividends and see how the model's cash flow inputs were set before relying on either estimate.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear

₩130,713

+44%

Base

₩212,981

+135%

Bull

₩364,016

+302%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.5%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

• Share cancellation decisionAug 28, 2026
• Share cancellation decisionAug 28, 2026
• Change in largest shareholder's holdingsAug 19, 2026
• Half-year report (Jun 2026)Aug 14, 2026
• Amended: Sale of property, plant and equipmentJul 16, 2026
• Cash dividend decisionJul 16, 2026
• Cash dividend decisionJul 15, 2026
• Cash dividend decisionJul 15, 2026
• Cash dividend decisionJul 6, 2026
• Decision on Shareholder Register Closure (Record Date) for Cash/Stock Dividends (Material Management Matter of Subsidiary)Jul 6, 2026
• Cash dividend decisionJul 3, 2026
• Shareholder Register Closure for Cash/Stock Dividend (Record Date) DecisionJul 3, 2026
• Daily prices up to 2026-10-20
• Financial statements, trailing 12 months as of H1 2026
• Our fair value model, statements as of TTM to H1 2026

Report history

1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeKPX Holdings: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises Sharply to ₩212,981 per Share
2. Oct 19, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)KPX Holdings: Profit Surge Driven by Non-Operating Items as Shares Trade Near Book Value Discount