LF: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises 71% to ₩45,874 on a Lower Discount Rate

What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model's base-case estimate moved from ₩26,865 to ₩45,874 per share, a rise of 71%. The bear case moved from ₩10,351 to ₩8,708 and the bull case from ₩56,662 to ₩120,888. The financial base is unchanged, still the twelve months to H1 2026. The one visible input change is the discount rate, which is now 6.0% versus 7.5% in the previous report. No filings were provided with this event, and the data pack shows no new earnings. A treasury stock acquisition results report (2026-10-21) and a 5%+ holding report (2026-10-20) appear in recent filings, but their contents are not available to us.

The share price was ₩22,450 on 2026-10-20, with a market cap of ₩656.4B.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described a profitable business with recovered margins, flat sales and low multiples. That picture is unchanged. Operating margin is still 9.5% on a trailing basis, return on equity is 7.0%, and revenue of ₩1.92T over the twelve months to H1 2026 remains close to levels seen in 2022. Foreign ownership was 12.8% against 13.7% sixty days earlier, and foreign investors were net sellers over 20 days (about ₩2.3B). The model change adds no new evidence on growth. The treasury stock report fits with the earlier buyback decision, but the filing details are not available.

What it changes for the valuation

The model estimate based on the assumptions shown is now ₩45,874 per share in the base case, ₩8,708 in the bear case and ₩120,888 in the bull case. The previous report had ₩26,865 base, ₩10,351 bear and ₩56,662 bull. The base case is about twice the ₩22,450 share price, but the range is extremely wide: the bull case is nearly 14 times the bear case. This shows how sensitive a discounted cash flow result is to the rate, since a 1.5-point lower rate moved the base case by 71% without any change in the company's reported numbers. Current multiples are a P/E of 5.8, P/B of 0.4 and EV/EBITDA of 4.7, with a dividend yield of 3.1%. The model estimate is not a price target or a buy/sell signal.

Closing view

The business facts are the same as two days earlier: recovered profitability, modest returns on equity, flat sales and mild foreign selling. What changed is the model's discount rate, which lifted the estimate sharply and widened the range. That makes the higher fair value a sign of assumption sensitivity more than of improved fundamentals. The evidence remains mixed and the model range is too wide to be conclusive.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear

₩8,708

-59%

Base

₩45,874

+117%

Bull

₩120,888

+473%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 6%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

• Report on Treasury Stock Acquisition ResultsOct 21, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportOct 20, 2026
• Share buyback decisionSep 30, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportSep 18, 2026
• Investor relations (IR) eventSep 1, 2026
• Half-year report (Jun 2026)Aug 14, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportJul 10, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportJun 23, 2026
• Investor relations (IR) eventJun 2, 2026
• Disclosure of Corporate Governance ReportJun 1, 2026
• Amended: Annual report (Dec 2025)Jun 1, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportMay 18, 2026
• Daily prices up to 2026-10-20
• Financial statements, trailing 12 months as of H1 2026
• Our fair value model, statements as of TTM to H1 2026

Report history

1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeLF: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises 71% to ₩45,874 on a Lower Discount Rate
2. Oct 20, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)LF: Low Multiples and Improving Margins, With a Wide Range in the Model Estimate