Poongsan: Shares Down 48.6% Over a Year While Trailing Earnings Hold Up; Model Estimate Sits Well Below Price

Thesis

The data supports a picture of a business with growing revenue and steady but moderate margins, whose share price has fallen sharply from its 52-week high of ₩159,200 to near the low of ₩55,200. Trailing multiples are low: P/E of 8.9, P/B of 0.7 and EV/EBITDA of 3.9. Trailing net income of ₩201.9B is above the 2025 level of ₩147.2B, and operating margin rose to 6.5% from 5.9%.

The data does not support a simple conclusion, however. Free cash flow over the trailing period was negative at about -₩268.0B, and the model's base-case estimate of ₩27,265 per share is well below the current price. Investor flow, foreign ownership and short balance data are not available, and no news headlines were provided, so the reasons for the share price decline cannot be identified from this data.

Business overview

Poongsan is listed on KOSPI in the Steel & Materials sector. It was founded on 2008-07-04 and listed on 2008-07-30, with 28,024,278 listed shares. The CEOs listed are 류진 and 박우동. The data does not describe its products or segments, so this report does not either.

Revenue grew from ₩3.51T in 2021 to ₩5.05T in 2025, with a dip of 5.7% in 2023. Trailing revenue to H1 2026 is ₩5.34T. Among the peers shown, Poongsan's market cap of about ₩1.8T is above SeAH Besteel Holdings (₩1.6T) and Sama Aluminium (₩1.1T), and far below POSCO Holdings (₩24.7T) and Korea Zinc (₩20.9T).

Financial analysis

All figures come from filed financial statements (DART). Revenue rose 10.4% in 2024 and 10.9% in 2025, reaching ₩5.05T. Operating income was ₩297.4B in 2025 (5.9% margin), down from ₩323.8B in 2024 (7.1%) and ₩314.1B in 2021 (9.0%). Net income was ₩147.2B in 2025, down from ₩236.0B in 2024. ROE was 6.5% in 2025 versus 11.3% in 2024 and 14.5% in 2021.

Trailing to H1 2026: revenue ₩5.34T, operating income ₩349.5B (6.5% margin), net income ₩201.9B (3.8% margin) and ROE 8.7%. Liabilities to equity are 104.7%. Cash is ₩242.1B against borrowings of ₩172.7B. Free cash flow is negative at about -₩268.0B, which is a point to watch.

Valuation

At the current price, P/E is 8.9, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.3 and EV/EBITDA 3.9, with a dividend yield of 2.6% and enterprise value of about ₩1.73T. At the end of 2025, P/E was 20.3 and P/B was 1.3, so the multiples are lower than a year earlier. Earlier year-end multiples are not available.

Among peers, P/E is 18.3 for POSCO Holdings, 21.2 for Korea Zinc and 18.0 for SeAH Besteel Holdings; Hyundai Steel and Sama Aluminium have no P/E in the data. Peer P/B ranges from 0.2 to 1.8 where available. Poongsan's P/E is below the peers that have one.

The valuation model (5-year DCF, discount rate 6.2%, based on trailing data to H1 2026) gives a base-case estimate of ₩27,265 per share, with a bear case of ₩0 and a bull case of ₩148,391. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target. The base case is below the ₩64,300 price, and the wide range shows how sensitive the result is to assumptions, including the negative free cash flow.

Catalysts

• The half-year report for June 2026 was filed on 2026-08-14, and preliminary earnings on 2026-07-31 showed trailing operating income of ₩349.5B.
• An investor relations event was held on 2026-07-28, shortly before the preliminary results.
• Repeated filings on changes in the largest shareholder's holdings, most recently dated 2026-10-13, may draw attention to ownership shifts.
• A 5%+ holding report was filed on 2026-10-02, which indicates a change in a major holder's stake, though the data does not give details.
• The dividend yield of 2.6% is a visible shareholder return, though the data does not say whether it will change.

Risks

• Free cash flow is negative at about -₩268.0B on a trailing basis, which may strain funding if it persists.
• The share price has fallen 48.6% in one year and 17.0% in the past month, showing high volatility.
• Operating margin of 6.5% and ROE of 8.7% are below the 2021 levels of 9.0% and 14.5%.
• The model's base-case estimate of ₩27,265 per share is well below the current price, and its bear case is ₩0.
• Investor flows, foreign ownership, short balance and news were not available, so drivers of the decline cannot be assessed.

Closing view

The data shows a company with growing revenue, recovering trailing profit and low headline multiples, but also a steep share price decline, negative free cash flow and a model estimate below the market price. Low multiples may reflect market concerns that this data does not explain. Missing flow and news data limit the picture, so the evidence is mixed rather than conclusive.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear

₩0

-100%

Base

₩27,265

-53%

Bull

₩148,391

+157%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 6.2%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

• Change in largest shareholder's holdingsOct 13, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportOct 2, 2026
• Change in largest shareholder's holdingsSep 10, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportSep 10, 2026
• Half-year report (Jun 2026)Aug 14, 2026
• Change in largest shareholder's holdingsAug 12, 2026
• Insider shareholding reportAug 12, 2026
• Preliminary earnings (consolidated)Jul 31, 2026
• Preliminary earningsJul 31, 2026
• Investor relations (IR) eventJul 28, 2026
• Change in largest shareholder's holdingsJul 10, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportJul 1, 2026
• Daily prices up to 2026-10-12
• Financial statements, trailing 12 months as of H1 2026
• Our fair value model, statements as of TTM to H1 2026

Report history

1. Oct 13, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (300 largest)Poongsan: Shares Down 48.6% Over a Year While Trailing Earnings Hold Up; Model Estimate Sits Well Below Price