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Chong Kun Dang Pharmaceutical · 185750 · Biotech & Pharma

Chong Kun Dang: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises to ₩88,607 per Share from ₩36,731

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved +141% (₩36,731 → ₩88,607 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model estimate of fair value for Chong Kun Dang's base case moved from ₩36,731 to ₩88,607 per share, with no new company filing behind it. The change shifts the model's base case from below the share price to above it, but the same trailing figures and a very wide range still limit what it says.

Written Oct 21, 2026 · Data as of Oct 20, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model's base estimate rose 141%, from ₩36,731 to ₩88,607 per share. No filings or other company events accompany the change, and no smaller recent events are listed as background.

The model inputs are still the trailing figures to H1 2026: revenue of ₩1.78T, operating income of ₩77.2B (a 4.3% margin) and free cash flow of -₩65.4B. The discount rate is now 7.0%, versus 7.2% before. The data does not show what else changed in the model, so the main drivers of the jump cannot be identified here.

The shares closed at ₩66,900 on 2026-10-20, up 4.9% over one month and down 17.6% over one year. The 52-week range is ₩63,000 to ₩98,100.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described a company with growing sales but weaker profitability: operating margin fell from 14.8% in 2023 to 4.3% on a trailing basis, free cash flow is negative, and the cause of the margin drop is not explained in the data. None of that has changed. No new filing or earnings information has appeared since that report.

The model change therefore does not resolve the question of whether margins will stabilise. The thesis stays as it was: low multiples (11.6 times earnings, 0.9 times book value) alongside weaker returns, with ROE at 8.3%.

What it changes for the valuation

The updated model gives a base estimate of ₩88,607 per share, with a bear case of ₩33,636 and a bull case of ₩188,806. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target. The previous report had a base of ₩36,731, a bear of ₩0 and a bull of ₩110,507.

Against the ₩66,900 share price, the base case is now above the price, whereas before it was below. The bear case moved from ₩0 to ₩33,636, which is still below the price. The bull case is now about 2.8 times the price. The range remains very wide, so the output is highly sensitive to assumptions.

The discount rate fell only 0.2 percentage points, and the inputs are the same trailing figures. A 141% swing from such small visible changes suggests the model is unstable rather than that the company's value has changed. EV/EBITDA is not available as a cross-check.

Closing view

The evidence is mixed and the change is mainly about the model, not the company. The new base estimate sits above the share price and the bear case is no longer zero, but the company's fundamentals are as described in the previous report: lower margins, negative free cash flow and an unexplained profit decline. A swing of this size with unchanged financial inputs argues for caution in reading either the old or the new estimate. Future filings showing whether margins and cash flow improve would be more informative than the model shift itself.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩33,636
-45%
Base
₩88,607
+45%
Bull
₩188,806
+208%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeChong Kun Dang: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises to ₩88,607 per Share from ₩36,731
  2. Oct 18, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Chong Kun Dang Pharmaceutical: Margins Have Fallen from the 2023 Peak While Shares Trade Near Book Value

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information