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JONBUR Research · Update note

Samsung Biologics · 207940 · Biotech & Pharma

Model Fair Value Estimate for Samsung Biologics Rises 22.9% to ₩580,299 Base Case

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved +21% (₩472,202 → ₩571,004 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model estimate of fair value for Samsung Biologics moved up to a base case of ₩580,299 per share, from ₩472,202 in the previous report. The share price of ₩1,452,000 remains far above even the new bull case, so the change does not alter the gap between the model and the market.

Written Oct 27, 2026 · Data as of Oct 26, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

The event is a model revision, not a company filing. The event log records a move of about 21% from ₩472,202 to ₩571,004 on 2026-10-22. The current model output is slightly higher: ₩406,737 (bear), ₩580,299 (base) and ₩859,422 (bull) per share, against ₩322,991, ₩472,202 and ₩709,877 in the previous report. The discount rate edged down to 7.4% from 7.5%. The financial base is the same trailing period to H1 2026, so the revision is not driven by new reported half-year figures. The exact cause is not shown in the data. A lower discount rate would raise the value, but the data does not break down the change. In the background, preliminary consolidated earnings were released on 2026-10-21, but no comparable figures are available in the data, so we cannot say how they compare. A news headline from 2026-10-27 refers to record third-quarter results, but the filing details are not available to us.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described a highly profitable company, with a 50.0% operating margin, 20.6% ROE and ₩1.6T of free cash flow, but with flat sales growth and open questions about the capital raise, the acquisition and labor action. The trailing figures are unchanged, so those points stand. Sales growth was 0.2% in 2025, and the size and financial effect of the capital raise and acquisition are still not quantified in the data. On labor, headlines point both ways: one on 2026-10-23 says strike concerns eased, while another on 2026-10-26 reports the union saying the court measures undermine its right to strike. The risk is therefore not settled.

What it changes for the valuation

Our model estimate, based on the assumptions shown, is now ₩406,737 to ₩859,422 per share, with a base of ₩580,299. That is about 22.9% above the previous base of ₩472,202. The share price closed at ₩1,452,000 on 2026-10-26, up from ₩1,427,000 at the time of the previous report. The price is about 69% above the bull case and about 2.5 times the base case. At this price the P/E is 33.9, the P/B is 8.0 and the P/S is 14.8. Enterprise value is about ₩66.0T. EV/EBITDA is not available and the dividend yield is 0. Peers show a P/E of 28.0 and P/B of 2.5 for Celltrion, and 25.4 and 2.5 for Yuhan. The model estimate is not a price target. The gap says the market assumes faster growth or higher margins than our inputs do, not what the shares will do.

Closing view

The higher model range reflects a modest change in inputs, not new evidence from a filing in the data. The business remains very profitable, but growth has stalled and the capital raise, acquisition and labor questions are unresolved. Even after the revision, the share price sits well above the top of the model's range, so the central question from the previous report remains: whether the growth and margin assumptions implied by the market prove achievable. Upcoming full earnings details and any disclosure on the capital raise would help test that.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩406,737
-70%
Base
₩580,299
-58%
Bull
₩859,422
-37%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.4%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 27, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeModel Fair Value Estimate for Samsung Biologics Rises 22.9% to ₩580,299 Base Case
  2. Oct 20, 2026Update noteBig price moveSamsung Biologics Shares Rise 18.8% in Five Days on Heavy Volume
  3. Oct 13, 2026InitiationSamsung Biologics: Profit Margins Have Expanded, but the Share Price Has Fallen Over the Past Three Months While Capital-Raising and Acquisition News Builds

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information