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Huons · 243070 · Biotech & Pharma

Huons: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut to ₩51,504 Base Case as Discount Rate Edges Lower and Bear Case Falls Sharply

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved -34% (₩76,573 → ₩50,258 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model estimate of fair value for Huons moved sharply lower, with the base case now at ₩51,504 per share versus ₩76,573 in the previous report. The estimate is still far above the ₩17,370 share price, but the range has become much wider on the downside.

Written Oct 25, 2026 · Data as of Oct 23, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

The event is a change in our model estimate, not a company filing. The model's headline fair value moved from ₩76,573 to ₩50,258 per share, a fall of 34%. The updated model range is ₩18,850 (bear), ₩51,504 (base) and ₩114,152 (bull), using a 5-year discounted cash flow at a 6.2% rate, based on trailing figures to H1 2026. The previous report used a 7.5% rate and gave ₩45,072, ₩76,573 and ₩129,034. No new filings explain the change in the excerpts provided. The most recent filing, on 2026-10-21, says Huons was not designated as an unfaithful disclosure company, with the designation deferred. This follows a notice of designation on 2026-09-23. The share price closed at ₩17,370 on 2026-10-23, down 7.8% in one month, 31.2% in three months and 41.3% in one year, and close to the 52-week low of ₩17,110.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described steady revenue with weakening profitability, and said the model estimate rested on assumptions that earnings would recover, which the trailing numbers did not show. The lower estimate fits that caution. Trailing figures are unchanged: revenue ₩607.8B, operating income ₩22.0B, an operating margin of 3.6% versus 7.3% in 2025, and free cash flow of ₩33.4B. The disclosure-designation deferral removes some uncertainty on that matter, but it does not change the earnings picture. The merger terms are still not available in the data provided, so their effect cannot be judged here.

What it changes for the valuation

The base case fell about 32.7% from ₩76,573 to ₩51,504. The bear case fell much more, from ₩45,072 to ₩18,850, which is now only slightly above the ₩17,370 share price, whereas the previous bear case was well above it. The bull case fell from ₩129,034 to ₩114,152. The wide range shows how sensitive the result is to cash flow assumptions. At the current price, P/E is 11.0, P/B 0.6, P/S 0.3 and the dividend yield is 5.3%. Enterprise value is ₩316.4B, and EV/EBITDA is not available. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a price target or a buy or sell signal.

Closing view

The evidence points to a weaker and less certain valuation picture than in the previous report. The model still sits above the share price in every case, but the bear case is now close to it, so the cushion that looked large before has narrowed on the downside. Profitability has not yet recovered, the merger details are not available, and the disclosure matter is deferred rather than resolved. Investors may want to follow the next earnings, the merger terms and any further disclosure decisions before drawing conclusions.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩18,850
+11%
Base
₩51,504
+204%
Bull
₩114,152
+573%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 6.2%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 25, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeHuons: Model Fair Value Estimate Cut to ₩51,504 Base Case as Discount Rate Edges Lower and Bear Case Falls Sharply
  2. Oct 18, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Huons: Shares Down 40.6% in a Year as Profit Margins Narrow and Merger Filings Continue

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information