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JONBUR Research · Update note

Aribiolab · 261780 · Biotech & Pharma

Aribiolab: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises to ₩567 per Share, Still Far Below Market Price

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved +165% (₩214 → ₩567 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model estimate of fair value for Aribiolab rose 165% to ₩567 per share from ₩214, with no new company filing behind the change. The estimate remains far below the ₩3,830 share price, so the gap highlighted in the initiation is narrower but still very large.

Written Oct 21, 2026 · Data as of Oct 20, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

On 2026-10-22 the model estimate moved from ₩214 to ₩567 per share, a rise of 165.0%. The model is still a 5-year discounted cash flow at a 7.5% rate, based on the twelve months to H1 2026, so the basis period has not changed.

No filing excerpts were provided with this event, and the data lists no new filing that explains the revision. The reason for the change in the model output is not available in the data. The most recent filings, on 2026-10-16, were a securities issuance result and a decision on the sale of own convertible bonds, which were already known at the time of the initiation.

The share price closed at ₩3,830 on 2026-10-20, down from ₩3,900 on 2026-10-16. It is up 62.3% over three months and down 8.7% over one month. A news item on 2026-10-19 from Maeil Business Newspaper referred to a golden cross breakout for the stock, a chart-based note with no information on the business.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report described a company valued on expectations rather than current earnings, with only ₩173M of revenue over the last twelve months against an operating loss of ₩13.0B. The reported figures are unchanged: revenue ₩173M, operating loss ₩13.0B, net loss ₩14.9B, cash ₩6.9B and free cash flow of -₩9.2B.

The higher model value therefore does not show improved business results. The financing activity (rights offering, convertible bonds, change of largest shareholder) remains the main feature, and its terms and use of funds are still not in the data.

What it changes for the valuation

The model now gives a base estimate of ₩567 per share, with bear ₩571 and bull ₩560. The previous report had base ₩214, bear ₩220 and bull ₩206. As before, the bear case sits above the bull case, which suggests the model does not behave well for a company with negative cash flows, so the range should be read with caution.

At ₩3,830, the share price is about 6.8 times the new base estimate, against about 18 times the old one. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a target.

Other measures are broadly similar to the initiation: price to book is 11.2, price to sales 640.5, enterprise value ₩95.3B and market cap ₩110.9B. Earnings multiples cannot be calculated because the company is loss-making.

Closing view

The change in the model output is large in percentage terms but comes without new financial results or a filing that explains it. The company remains a loss-making, pre-revenue biotech whose price is far above what the model supports, and the model range itself is unstable. Investors would want to know what drove the revision and to review the financing terms and any clinical or commercial progress, none of which is available in this data.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩571
-83%
Base
₩567
-83%
Bull
₩560
-84%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.5%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 21, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeAribiolab: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises to ₩567 per Share, Still Far Below Market Price
  2. Oct 18, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Aribiolab: Pre-Revenue Losses, Heavy Financing Activity and a Model Estimate Far Below the Share Price

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information