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Aribiolab

261780 · KOSDAQ · ₩261780 · 아리바이오랩

₩3,405▲ ₩5 (0.15%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩566

vs the current price (₩3,405)

Enterprise value
−₩688M
Equity value
₩16B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 83% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
  • Margins ranged from −8,997.2% to −1,216.9% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩571
−83.2%
Base
₩566
−83.4%
Bull
₩559
−83.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -20%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 69.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 86.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -10%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.14, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩173M
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩16B
+ Stakes and investments
₩1.4B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
28,955,976
Share price
₩3,405
Market cap
₩99B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩294M₩371M₩159M₩166M₩162M₩162M₩164M₩168M
Growth63.9%26.0%−57.2%−4.0%−2.3%−0.5%1.2%3.0%
EBIT−₩6.4B−₩7.7B−₩14B−₩33M−₩32M−₩32M−₩33M−₩34M
EBIT margin−2,182.5%−2,076.4%−8,997.2%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩4.7B−₩5.6B−₩10B−₩24M−₩24M−₩23M−₩24M−₩24M
+ Depreciation———₩116M₩113M₩112M₩114M₩117M
− Capital spending₩291M₩235M₩156M₩144M₩141M₩140M₩142M₩146M
− Working capital−₩50B−₩7.9B−₩7.8B₩692,640₩382,337₩81,205−₩193,918−₩490,612
Free cash flow———−₩54M−₩52M−₩51M−₩52M−₩53M
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8080.7520.700
Present value———−₩50M−₩45M−₩42M−₩39M−₩37M

Terminal value −₩679M, worth −₩475M today: 69% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩342 a share)Now 9.97×₩1,1073.24×₩1,5154.44×₩2,4907.29×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2022, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩565₩564₩561₩559₩555
6.9%₩567₩566₩564₩562₩559
7.4%₩569₩568₩566₩564₩562
7.9%₩570₩569₩568₩567₩565
8.4%₩571₩571₩570₩568₩567

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩99B
Enterprise value
₩83B
P/E
—
P/B
10.0×
P/S
569.4×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,825₩3,060₩5,650₩4,985₩11,100
Market cap₩82B₩89B₩164B₩144B₩321B
P/E—————
P/B6.9×3.2×4.6×4.3×8.1×
P/S515.7×239.0×556.2×804.2×642.8×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Aribiolab—10.0×569.4×—0.0%
Samsung Biologics32.0×7.6×14.0×—0.0%
Celltrion27.9×2.5×9.0×—0.0%
Alteogen80.5×29.0×61.2×—0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals14.7×5.8×6.8×—0.0%
Yuhan24.0×2.4×2.5×31.3×0.8%
HLB—15.7×55.6×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.9×6.7×11.5×31.3×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Aribiolab / 아리바이오랩 / 261780 / KRX:261780

Source: KRX statistical information