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JONBUR Research · Update note

Orion · 271560 · Food & Beverage

Orion: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises 21% on Lower Discount Rate

Why this report

Written after:

  • Model fair value changeModel estimate of fair value moved +21% (₩190,469 → ₩230,517 per share)Oct 22, 2026

Our model estimate of Orion's fair value rose to ₩235,558 per share in the base case from ₩190,469, a 21.0% increase. The change comes from updated model assumptions, not from new filings, and it does not alter the operating picture described in the previous report.

Written Oct 27, 2026 · Data as of Oct 26, 2026 · 0 views

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

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What happened

No new company filing drove this note. The event is a revision of our model estimate, dated 2026-10-22. The base case moved from ₩190,469 to ₩235,558 per share (the event record shows ₩230,517 at that date, and the model has since been refreshed). The discount rate used is now 7.3%, against 7.5% in the previous report. The underlying financial data are unchanged, trailing to H1 2026: revenue of ₩3.58T, operating income of ₩603.5B (a 16.9% margin) and net income of ₩419.2B. Smaller background events: Silchester International Investors raised its stake to 7.1%, up 1.0 points, in a filing dated 2026-10-27, and news coverage continued of activist opposition to a possible Orion bid for JoongAng Ilbo. Separate news on 2026-10-22 reported Orion adding custard cake production lines in Korea, Vietnam and India, at a scale of about ₩300B a year according to Chosun Biz and Yonhap News Agency. The data we have do not show whether that expansion is built into the model.

What it changes for the thesis

The thesis in the previous report is unchanged. Orion remains a profitable company with a margin near 17%, liabilities at 18.9% of equity, cash of ₩663.3B and borrowings of ₩227.3B. The open question from that report, whether management would commit capital to a media acquisition outside its food business, is not resolved by this update. Deal size, financing and terms are still not available. The model revision tells us about our assumptions, not about any new development at the company.

What it changes for the valuation

Our updated model estimate, based on the assumptions shown, is ₩161,378 (bear), ₩235,558 (base) and ₩358,585 (bull) per share, using a 7.3% discount rate on data to H1 2026. The previous report gave ₩125,761, ₩190,469 and ₩296,828 at a 7.5% discount rate. Every case is higher, and the small cut in the discount rate is the only changed input we can identify. The share price is ₩113,000, below even the new bear case. The model is simple, sensitive to its discount rate and is not a target. Current multiples are a P/E of 10.7x, a P/B of 1.1x and a dividend yield of 3.1%. The share price is down 13.1% over three months and up 2.6% over one month.

Closing view

The 21.0% rise in the base estimate reflects a modestly lower discount rate applied to unchanged earnings, not a change in the business. That shows how sensitive a long-horizon estimate is to one assumption, so it should be read as a range, not a point. The share price sits below the whole modeled range, but that gap does not explain why the market is pricing Orion this way, and the JoongAng Ilbo question may be part of it. The next things to watch are the outcome of the bidding process, any terms disclosed, and how management responds to shareholders. This note is informational and offers no recommendation.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear
₩161,378
+45%
Base
₩235,558
+111%
Bull
₩358,585
+222%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.3%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

Report history

  1. Oct 27, 2026Update noteModel fair value changeOrion: Model Fair Value Estimate Rises 21% on Lower Discount Rate
  2. Oct 20, 2026Update noteNewsActivists Press Orion to Drop Bid for JoongAng Ilbo
  3. Oct 13, 2026Update noteEarningsOrion Files September 2026 Preliminary Earnings; Only Korea Sales Visible in Excerpt
  4. Oct 13, 2026InitiationOrion: Steady Margins and Low Multiples as Shares Fall Well Below Their 52-Week High

Built only from jonbur's own data: prices and investor flows, filed financial statements and filings, and news headlines. Disclosed (filed) data is labelled as such. Written by AI and may contain mistakes.

This is not financial advice. The report does not recommend buying or selling anything.

Source: KRX statistical information