KOSPI · 271560 · Food & Beverage · ₩271560

Orion오리온

271560 · KOSPI · ₩271560 · 오리온

₩111,500▼ ₩1,500 (1.33%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩235,558

vs the current price (₩111,500)

Enterprise value: ₩8.4T
Equity value: ₩9.3T
WACC: 7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 111% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩111,500, the model needs an operating margin of 7.7% every year (it uses 16.7%).
Or revenue growth −21.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩3.7T, operating profit ₩623B (16.7% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩4.1T, operating profit ₩722B (17.7% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Today's P/E is 10.5× against a typical 10.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩161,378; +44.7%
Base: ₩235,558; +111.3%
Bull: ₩358,585; +221.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (16.7%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 15.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 24.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 34%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 43.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin16.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation4.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Capital spending4.7%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital19.1%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩3.6T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩291B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩690B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests: ₩115B
Shares: 39,528,788
Share price: ₩111,500
Market cap: ₩4.4T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩2.9T	₩3.1T	₩3.3T	₩3.8T	₩3.9T	₩4.1T	₩4.2T	₩4.4T
Growth	1.4%	6.6%	7.3%	5.1%	4.5%	4.0%	3.5%	3.0%
EBIT	₩492B	₩544B	₩558B	₩628B	₩656B	₩682B	₩706B	₩727B
EBIT margin	16.9%	17.5%	16.8%	16.7%	16.7%	16.7%	16.7%	16.7%
After-tax EBIT	₩357B	₩394B	₩405B	₩455B	₩476B	₩495B	₩512B	₩527B
+ Depreciation	₩140B	₩145B	₩147B	₩173B	₩181B	₩188B	₩195B	₩200B
− Capital spending	₩169B	₩123B	₩146B	₩177B	₩185B	₩192B	₩199B	₩205B
− Working capital	−₩262B	₩518B	₩398B	₩35B	₩32B	₩30B	₩27B	₩24B
Free cash flow	₩590B	−₩102B	₩7.5B	₩417B	₩439B	₩461B	₩481B	₩499B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.932	0.868	0.809	0.753	0.702
Present value	—	—	—	₩388B	₩381B	₩373B	₩362B	₩350B

Terminal value ₩9.4T, worth ₩6.6T today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩102,850 a share)Now 1.08×	₩120,6001.17×	₩138,0861.34×	₩195,8131.90×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩10,604 a share)Now 10.5×	₩85,7568.09×	₩112,14710.6×	₩157,28614.8×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩8,718 a share)Now 12.8×	₩70,5048.09×	₩92,20110.6×	₩129,31214.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.3%	₩246,084	₩263,624	₩285,195	₩312,375	₩347,689
6.8%	₩226,605	₩240,750	₩257,807	₩278,784	₩305,215
7.3%	₩210,208	₩221,802	₩235,558	₩252,145	₩272,543
7.8%	₩196,214	₩205,849	₩217,125	₩230,501	₩246,631
8.3%	₩184,132	₩192,234	₩201,604	₩212,569	₩225,577

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩4.4T
Enterprise value: ₩4T
P/E: 10.5×
P/B: 1.1×
P/S: 1.2×
EV/EBITDA: 5.3×
Dividend yield: 3.1%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩105,700	₩102,400	₩116,100	₩128,000	₩103,500
Market cap	₩4.2T	₩4T	₩4.6T	₩5.1T	₩4.1T
P/E	10.9×	7.7×	12.2×	12.9×	15.9×
P/B	1.1×	1.2×	1.6×	2.0×	1.9×
P/S	1.3×	1.3×	1.6×	1.8×	1.7×
EV/EBITDA	5.5×	5.2×	5.5×	7.4×	7.4×
Dividend yield	3.3%	2.4%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Orion	10.5×	1.1×	1.2×	5.3×	3.1%
Samyang Foods	17.5×	5.6×	3.1×	—	0.4%
CJ Cheiljedang	—	0.3×	0.1×	—	3.6%
Nongshim	12.1×	0.8×	0.7×	—	1.5%
Otoki	16.9×	0.6×	0.3×	—	2.9%
Hite Jinro	23.3×	1.0×	0.4×	6.4×	4.5%
Lotte Wellfood	12.7×	0.5×	0.3×	—	2.8%
Similar companies (median)	16.9×	0.7×	0.4×	6.4×	2.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Orion / 오리온 / 271560 / KRX:271560

Source: KRX statistical information