Almac: Shares Fall 18.7% in Five Days on Heavy Volume; Model Now Gives a Fair Value Range

What happened

Between 2026-10-22 and 2026-10-28 the shares dropped 18.7% on volume 2.5 times the normal level. No filings, news headlines or smaller events are available to explain the move.

The close of ₩52,200 on 2026-10-28 is still 33.8% higher over one month, 142.2% higher over three months and 124.5% higher over one year, and well below the 52-week high of ₩104,000. Market value is about ₩333.6B. The previous report cited a close of ₩51,800 on 2026-10-16, so the price is roughly where it was then.

Over 20 days foreigners were net sellers of about ₩13.4B and institutions net buyers of about ₩16.7B. Foreign ownership is 1.4%, down from 11.6% sixty days ago. The most recent 5%+ holding reports were filed on 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-30, and their contents are not available to us.

What it changes for the thesis

The previous report argued that the price was running ahead of reported fundamentals. The sharp drop does not change that picture, because the fundamentals in the data have not changed: trailing operating margin is 3.6%, net margin 1.7%, ROE 2.2% and free cash flow is negative at about ₩29.6B. Liabilities are 124.3% of equity, against cash of ₩21.0B and borrowings of ₩20.1B.

The heavy-volume decline shows the price is volatile, but with no filing or news we cannot say what drove it. The ownership shift away from foreigners and toward institutions that the previous report noted has continued.

What it changes for the valuation

The previous report had no model estimate. The model now gives a fair value of ₩7,455 per share in the base case, ₩3,759 in the bear case and ₩15,287 in the bull case, using a discount rate of 7.6% and trailing results to the first half of 2026. This is a model estimate based on the assumptions shown, not a price target.

The ₩52,200 share price is above even the bull case of ₩15,287. Trailing P/E is 102.5, P/B 2.1 and P/S 1.7, with enterprise value of about ₩264.9B. Peers show P/E of 8.3 to 18.9 where available and P/B of 0.2 to 1.6, so Almac remains above all of them.

Closing view

The 18.7% drop has not closed the gap between the price and the reported business. Earnings remain thin, cash flow is negative, and the model range sits well below the market price. The model rests on assumptions that could differ from how the market sees the company's prospects, and the reason for the sell-off is not visible in the data. The next filings and the contents of the recent large shareholder reports are the main things to watch for an explanation.

Model estimate of fair value

Bear

₩3,759

-92%

Base

₩7,455

-84%

Bull

₩15,287

-68%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Base case of the 5-year discounted cash flow model on the stock's Valuation tab (statements TTM to H1 2026; discount rate 7.6%). Bear and Bull move the main assumptions by fixed steps. See and change the assumptions

Filings and data used

• 5%+ holding reportSep 30, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportSep 18, 2026
• Half-year report (Jun 2026)Aug 14, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportJul 1, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportJun 25, 2026
• Quarterly report (Mar 2026)May 15, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportMar 31, 2026
• Change of CEOMar 26, 2026
• Annual general meeting resultsMar 26, 2026
• Report on Appointment, Dismissal, or Mid-Term Resignation of Independent DirectorsMar 26, 2026
• 5%+ holding reportMar 23, 2026
• Audit report submittedMar 18, 2026
• Daily prices up to 2026-10-28
• Financial statements, trailing 12 months as of H1 2026
• Our fair value model, statements as of TTM to H1 2026

Report history

1. Oct 29, 2026Update noteBig price moveAlmac: Shares Fall 18.7% in Five Days on Heavy Volume; Model Now Gives a Fair Value Range
2. Oct 19, 2026InitiationStart of coverage (reader request)Almac: Share Price Surges While Earnings Remain Thin and Cash Flow Negative