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Almac

354320 · KOSDAQ · ₩354320 · 알멕

₩62,300▲ ₩7,800 (14.31%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩7,454

vs the current price (₩62,300)

Enterprise value
−₩3.6B
Equity value
₩48B
WACC
7.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 88% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩62,300, the model needs an operating margin of 19.8% every year (it uses 3.1%).
  • Margins ranged from −1.7% to 7.3% over the last 3 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩3,797
−93.9%
Base
₩7,454
−88.0%
Bull
₩15,178
−75.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.1%).

Revenue growth

  • -6.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-6.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -4.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-6.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-6.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-6.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-6.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 14.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 18.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 35%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.65

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.47, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩195B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩61B
+ Stakes and investments
₩502M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩11B
Shares
6,391,381
Share price
₩62,300
Market cap
₩398B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩216B₩157B₩188B₩181B₩174B₩170B₩171B₩176B
Growth—−27.4%19.7%−6.8%−4.3%−1.9%0.6%3.0%
EBIT₩16B−₩2.7B₩6.2B₩5.6B₩5.4B₩5.3B₩5.3B₩5.5B
EBIT margin7.3%−1.7%3.3%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%
After-tax EBIT₩11B−₩2B₩4.5B₩4.1B₩3.9B₩3.8B₩3.9B₩4B
+ Depreciation———₩27B₩26B₩25B₩26B₩26B
− Capital spending₩47B₩31B₩27B₩34B₩32B₩32B₩32B₩33B
− Working capital—₩7.3B−₩5.9B−₩4.6B−₩2.7B−₩1.2B₩358M₩1.8B
Free cash flow———₩1.8B₩35M−₩1.5B−₩3B−₩4.5B
Discount factor———0.9290.8620.8010.7440.691
Present value———₩1.7B₩30M−₩1.2B−₩2.2B−₩3.1B

Terminal value ₩1.8B, worth ₩1.3B today: -35% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩24,598 a share)Now 2.53×₩23,7390.97×₩34,3601.40×₩74,5343.03×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.7%₩8,665₩8,128₩7,468₩6,643₩5,584
7.2%₩8,537₩8,049₩7,459₩6,736₩5,833
7.7%₩8,432₩7,985₩7,454₩6,815₩6,031
8.2%₩8,344₩7,935₩7,453₩6,882₩6,194
8.7%₩8,270₩7,893₩7,455₩6,941₩6,330

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩398B
Enterprise value
₩329B
P/E
122.4×
P/B
2.5×
P/S
2.0×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

202520242023
Price₩20,150₩25,650₩46,300
Market cap₩129B₩164B₩296B
P/E—250.3×—
P/B0.9×1.2×2.2×
P/S0.7×1.0×1.4×
EV/EBITDA———
Dividend yield0.0%——

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Almac122.4×2.5×2.0×—0.0%
POSCO Holdings16.2×0.4×0.3×7.7×3.6%
Korea Zinc18.1×1.6×0.8×—2.3%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.2×—1.9%
Poongsan8.0×0.7×0.3×5.9×2.9%
SeAH Besteel Holdings12.7×0.6×0.3×9.6×3.8%
Sama Aluminium—4.3×3.1×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)14.4×0.6×0.3×7.7×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Almac / 알멕 / 354320 / KRX:354320

Source: KRX statistical information