Doosan두산
000150 · KOSPI · ₩000150 · 두산
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- ₩14T
- Equity value
- −₩1.3T
- WACC
- 8.6%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩952,000, the model needs an operating margin of 13.8% every year (it uses 6.4%).
- Or revenue growth +20.8 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩22T, operating profit ₩1.6T (7.1% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- ₩572,714
- −39.8%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.4%).
Revenue growth
- 5.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 6.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 4.7%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 0.2%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 1.14
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 1.21, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩21T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩5.5T
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩1.1T
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩11T
- Shares
- 18,514,807
- incl. 4,277,396 preferred
- Share price
- ₩952,000
- Market cap
- ₩15T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩19T | ₩18T | ₩20T | ₩22T | ₩23T | ₩24T | ₩25T | ₩25T |
| Growth | 12.6% | −5.2% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩1.4T | ₩1T | ₩1.1T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.6T |
| EBIT margin | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩1T | ₩728B | ₩770B | ₩1T | ₩1.1T | ₩1.1T | ₩1.1T | ₩1.2T |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩808B | ₩845B | ₩880B | ₩911B | ₩938B |
| − Capital spending | ₩823B | ₩930B | ₩898B | ₩1T | ₩1.1T | ₩1.1T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T |
| − Working capital | −₩2.4T | ₩2.4T | ₩107B | ₩2.2B | ₩2B | ₩1.9B | ₩1.7B | ₩1.5B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩793B | ₩829B | ₩864B | ₩894B | ₩921B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.921 | 0.848 | 0.780 | 0.719 | 0.662 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩730B | ₩703B | ₩674B | ₩642B | ₩609B |
Terminal value ₩17T, worth ₩11T today: 77% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩140,954 a share)Now 6.75× | ₩96,1670.68× | ₩234,8061.67× | ₩1,383,6009.82× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | — | ₩12,469 | ₩75,703 | ₩151,294 | ₩243,261 |
| 8.1% | — | — | — | ₩59,707 | ₩133,893 |
| 8.6% | — | — | — | — | ₩44,071 |
| 9.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9.6% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩14T
- Enterprise value
- ₩18T
- P/E
- 36.8×
- P/B
- 5.2×
- P/S
- 0.7×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.4%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩781,000 | ₩255,000 | ₩93,900 | ₩83,100 | ₩118,000 |
| Market cap | ₩11T | ₩3.6T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.7T |
| P/E | 146.7× | — | — | — | 7.9× |
| P/B | 7.1× | 2.5× | 0.8× | 0.7× | 0.8× |
| P/S | 0.6× | 0.2× | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.5% | 0.8% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doosan | 36.8× | 5.2× | 0.7× | — | 0.4% |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | 89.0× | 8.8× | 7.2× | — | 0.2% |
| Hanwha Systems | 67.9× | 2.7× | 2.9× | — | 0.8% |
| LG Innotek | 13.4× | 1.4× | 0.4× | — | 0.5% |
| Isupetasys | 32.5× | 7.6× | 5.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Daeduck Electronics | 41.5× | 6.5× | 4.7× | — | 0.4% |
| Leeno Industrial | 24.9× | 6.0× | 11.0× | — | 1.3% |
| Similar companies (median) | 37.0× | 6.2× | 4.8× | — | 0.4% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Doosan / 두산 / 000150 / KRX:000150
Source: KRX statistical information