Doosan

000150 · KOSPI · ₩000150 · 두산

₩952,000▲ ₩51,000 (5.66%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
₩14T
Equity value
−₩1.3T
WACC
8.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩952,000, the model needs an operating margin of 13.8% every year (it uses 6.4%).
  • Or revenue growth +20.8 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩22T, operating profit ₩1.6T (7.1% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
₩572,714
−39.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.4%).

Revenue growth

  • 5.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 6.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 0.2%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 1.14

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 1.21, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩21T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩5.5T
+ Stakes and investments
₩1.1T
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩11T
Shares
18,514,807
incl. 4,277,396 preferred
Share price
₩952,000
Market cap
₩15T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩19T₩18T₩20T₩22T₩23T₩24T₩25T₩25T
Growth12.6%−5.2%9.1%5.2%4.6%4.1%3.5%3.0%
EBIT₩1.4T₩1T₩1.1T₩1.4T₩1.5T₩1.5T₩1.6T₩1.6T
EBIT margin7.5%5.5%5.4%6.4%6.4%6.4%6.4%6.4%
After-tax EBIT₩1T₩728B₩770B₩1T₩1.1T₩1.1T₩1.1T₩1.2T
+ Depreciation———₩808B₩845B₩880B₩911B₩938B
− Capital spending₩823B₩930B₩898B₩1T₩1.1T₩1.1T₩1.2T₩1.2T
− Working capital−₩2.4T₩2.4T₩107B₩2.2B₩2B₩1.9B₩1.7B₩1.5B
Free cash flow———₩793B₩829B₩864B₩894B₩921B
Discount factor———0.9210.8480.7800.7190.662
Present value———₩730B₩703B₩674B₩642B₩609B

Terminal value ₩17T, worth ₩11T today: 77% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩140,954 a share)Now 6.75×₩96,1670.68×₩234,8061.67×₩1,383,6009.82×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.6%—₩12,469₩75,703₩151,294₩243,261
8.1%———₩59,707₩133,893
8.6%————₩44,071
9.1%—————
9.6%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩14T
Enterprise value
₩18T
P/E
36.8×
P/B
5.2×
P/S
0.7×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.4%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩781,000₩255,000₩93,900₩83,100₩118,000
Market cap₩11T₩3.6T₩1.3T₩1.2T₩1.7T
P/E146.7×———7.9×
P/B7.1×2.5×0.8×0.7×0.8×
P/S0.6×0.2×0.1×0.1×0.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.5%0.8%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Doosan36.8×5.2×0.7×—0.4%
Samsung Electro-Mechanics89.0×8.8×7.2×—0.2%
Hanwha Systems67.9×2.7×2.9×—0.8%
LG Innotek13.4×1.4×0.4×—0.5%
Isupetasys32.5×7.6×5.0×—0.0%
Daeduck Electronics41.5×6.5×4.7×—0.4%
Leeno Industrial24.9×6.0×11.0×—1.3%
Similar companies (median)37.0×6.2×4.8×—0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Doosan / 두산 / 000150 / KRX:000150

Source: KRX statistical information