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KIA

000270 · KOSPI · ₩KIA · 기아

₩95,600▼ ₩12,700 (11.73%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩448,530

vs the current price (₩95,600)

Enterprise value
₩153T
Equity value
₩175T
WACC
7.9%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 369% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩95,600, the model needs an operating margin of 1.3% every year (it uses 8.8%).
  • The group includes a financial business (an insurer, bank or broker), whose investments and minority shareholders are left out here. A sum-of-the-parts view usually fits groups like this better.
  • Today's P/E is 5.3× against a typical 5.2× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩278,942
+191.8%
Base
₩448,530
+369.2%
Bull
₩725,974
+659.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (8.8%).

Revenue growth

  • 9.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 6.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 8.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -3.4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.7

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.55, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩119T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩23T
Shares
390,412,998
Share price
₩95,600
Market cap
₩37T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩100T₩107T₩114T₩131T₩141T₩150T₩157T₩162T
Growth15.3%7.7%6.2%9.7%8.0%6.3%4.7%3.0%
EBIT₩12T₩13T₩9.1T₩12T₩12T₩13T₩14T₩14T
EBIT margin11.6%11.8%8.0%8.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%
After-tax EBIT₩8.4T₩9.2T₩6.6T₩8.4T₩9T₩9.6T₩10T₩10T
+ Depreciation———₩4.2T₩4.5T₩4.8T₩5T₩5.2T
− Capital spending₩3.1T₩4.7T₩5T₩5.2T₩5.7T₩6T₩6.3T₩6.5T
− Working capital−₩4.4T₩786B−₩1.3T−₩393B−₩356B−₩303B−₩240B−₩160B
Free cash flow———₩7.7T₩8.2T₩8.7T₩9T₩9.2T
Discount factor———0.9270.8600.7970.7390.685
Present value———₩7.1T₩7.1T₩6.9T₩6.7T₩6.3T

Terminal value ₩173T, worth ₩118T today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩165,690 a share)Now 0.58×₩111,9180.68×₩135,0440.82×₩163,9690.99×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩18,079 a share)Now 5.29×₩67,9403.76×₩94,8925.25×₩133,0077.36×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩23,848 a share)Now 4.01×₩89,6203.76×₩125,1725.25×₩175,4497.36×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.9%₩460,565₩492,427₩530,859₩578,121₩637,646
7.4%₩428,067₩454,485₩485,843₩523,666₩570,179
7.9%₩400,325₩422,528₩448,530₩479,394₩516,621
8.4%₩376,368₩395,247₩417,102₩442,696₩473,076
8.9%₩355,474₩371,688₩390,272₩411,786₩436,981

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩37T
Enterprise value
₩15T
P/E
5.3×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
7.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩121,800₩100,700₩100,000₩59,300₩82,200
Market cap₩48T₩39T₩39T₩23T₩32T
P/E6.3×4.0×4.4×4.3×6.7×
P/B0.8×0.7×0.8×0.6×0.9×
P/S0.4×0.4×0.4×0.3×0.5×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield5.6%6.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
KIA5.3×0.6×0.3×—7.1%
Hyundai Motor7.0×0.5×0.3×—3.5%
KG Mobility5.3×0.3×0.1×—0.0%
KG Eco Solution1.8×0.2×0.0×—3.1%
Autech—0.5×0.1×—0.0%
DYP3.4×0.3×0.1×—2.5%
Similar companies (median)4.4×0.3×0.1×—2.5%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: KIA / 기아 / 000270 / KRX:000270

Source: KRX statistical information