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Daewonkangup

000430 · KOSPI · ₩000430 · 대원강업

₩3,970▼ ₩80 (1.98%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩5,618

vs the current price (₩3,970)

Enterprise value
₩741B
Equity value
₩348B
WACC
5.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 42% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,970, the model needs an operating margin of 2.6% every year (it uses 2.8%).
  • Or revenue growth −4.6 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
  • Today's P/E is 3.4× against a typical 9.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩5,618
+41.5%
Bull
₩36,754
+825.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.8%).

Revenue growth

  • 16%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 12.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 9.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 6.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 5.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 12.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.4, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.7T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩226B
+ Stakes and investments
₩12B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩178B
Shares
62,000,000
Share price
₩3,970
Market cap
₩246B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.1T₩1.4T₩1.6T₩2T₩2.2T₩2.4T₩2.6T₩2.7T
Growth8.0%23.6%16.9%16.0%12.8%9.5%6.3%3.0%
EBIT₩59B₩23B₩47B₩55B₩62B₩68B₩73B₩75B
EBIT margin5.3%1.6%2.9%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%
After-tax EBIT₩43B₩16B₩34B₩40B₩45B₩49B₩53B₩54B
+ Depreciation———₩83B₩93B₩102B₩109B₩112B
− Capital spending₩34B₩71B₩123B₩105B₩118B₩129B₩137B₩141B
− Working capital₩7.9B₩24B−₩9.4B₩34B₩32B₩26B₩19B₩9.7B
Free cash flow———−₩16B−₩11B−₩3.8B₩4.9B₩15B
Discount factor———0.9460.8950.8460.8000.757
Present value———−₩15B−₩9.7B−₩3.2B₩3.9B₩11B

Terminal value ₩994B, worth ₩753B today: 102% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩9,878 a share)Now 0.40×₩4,1650.42×₩4,6020.47×₩6,4390.65×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,156 a share)Now 3.44×₩5,3684.65×₩11,1469.64×₩19,32416.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,594 a share)Now 2.49×₩7,4054.65×₩15,3759.64×₩26,65716.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.7%₩7,248₩8,791₩10,894₩13,934₩18,729
5.2%₩5,329₩6,419₩7,842₩9,780₩12,581
5.7%₩3,823₩4,616₩5,618₩6,924₩8,703
6.2%₩2,611₩3,202₩3,927₩4,843₩6,036
6.7%₩1,617₩2,064₩2,601₩3,261₩4,094

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩246B
Enterprise value
₩467B
P/E
3.4×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.8%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩3,865₩3,890₩5,440₩3,390₩3,730
Market cap₩240B₩241B₩337B₩210B₩231B
P/E6.6×10.2×11.0×11.1×—
P/B0.4×0.5×0.7×0.4×0.5×
P/S0.1×0.2×0.3×0.2×0.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.8%2.8%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Daewonkangup3.4×0.4×0.1×—2.8%
Hyundai Mobis8.3×0.6×0.5×—1.9%
SL5.9×0.8×0.4×3.6×0.0%
HL Mando10.3×0.6×0.2×—2.0%
Hyundai WIA18.9×0.4×0.2×—2.4%
Samhyun—11.2×15.8×—0.0%
SNT Dynamics12.5×0.7×0.8×—7.3%
Similar companies (median)10.3×0.6×0.4×3.6×2.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Daewonkangup / 대원강업 / 000430 / KRX:000430

Source: KRX statistical information