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Samil Pharmaceutical

000520 · KOSPI · ₩000520 · 삼일제약

₩7,650▼ ₩40 (0.52%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩159B
Equity value
−₩329B
WACC
5.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩7,650, the model needs an operating margin of 8.6% every year (it uses −2.0%).
  • Margins ranged from −10.6% to 3.3% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−2.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 5.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 6.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 17.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.03, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩207B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩170B
+ Stakes and investments
₩2.3M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
21,691,811
Share price
₩7,650
Market cap
₩166B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩196B₩220B₩210B₩219B₩229B₩239B₩247B₩255B
Growth9.3%11.9%−4.3%5.4%4.8%4.2%3.6%3.0%
EBIT₩6.5B₩113M−₩22B−₩4.4B−₩4.6B−₩4.8B−₩4.9B−₩5.1B
EBIT margin3.3%0.1%−10.6%−2.0%−2.0%−2.0%−2.0%−2.0%
After-tax EBIT₩4.7B₩82M−₩16B−₩3.2B−₩3.3B−₩3.5B−₩3.6B−₩3.7B
+ Depreciation———₩11B₩11B₩12B₩12B₩12B
− Capital spending₩24B₩5.6B₩7.5B₩14B₩14B₩15B₩15B₩16B
− Working capital₩10B₩6.7B−₩12B₩2B₩1.8B₩1.7B₩1.5B₩1.3B
Free cash flow———−₩8B−₩8.1B−₩8.2B−₩8.3B−₩8.3B
Discount factor———0.9470.8960.8480.8030.760
Present value———−₩7.5B−₩7.3B−₩7B−₩6.7B−₩6.3B

Terminal value −₩164B, worth −₩125B today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩5,788 a share)Now 1.32×₩6,5071.12×₩8,5161.47×₩13,3872.31×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.6%—————
5.1%—————
5.6%—————
6.1%—————
6.6%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩166B
Enterprise value
₩334B
P/E
—
P/B
1.3×
P/S
0.8×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩9,690₩13,150₩6,700₩7,847₩7,628
Market cap₩210B₩285B₩145B₩170B₩165B
P/E——87.4×——
P/B1.6×1.6×1.1×1.4×2.5×
P/S1.0×1.3×0.7×0.9×1.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Samil Pharmaceutical—1.3×0.8×—0.0%
Samsung Biologics34.7×8.2×15.1×—0.0%
Celltrion28.2×2.5×9.1×—0.0%
Alteogen76.3×27.5×58.0×—0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals15.2×6.0×7.1×—0.0%
Yuhan23.3×2.3×2.4×30.4×0.8%
HLB—15.5×54.7×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)28.2×7.1×12.1×30.4×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Samil Pharmaceutical / 삼일제약 / 000520 / KRX:000520

Source: KRX statistical information