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Korea Castiron Pipe IND

000970 · KOSPI · ₩000970 · 한국주철관

₩6,300▼ ₩10 (0.16%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩8,768

vs the current price (₩6,300)

Enterprise value
₩150B
Equity value
₩200B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 39% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩6,300, the model needs an operating margin of 2.6% every year (it uses 3.8%).
  • 36% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 8.4× against a typical 8.7× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩4,655
−26.1%
Base
₩8,768
+39.2%
Bull
₩16,467
+161.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.8%).

Revenue growth

  • -5.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.8%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 30.4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.06, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩409B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩53B
− Minority interests
₩3.7B
Shares
22,800,500
Share price
₩6,300
Market cap
₩144B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩456B₩419B₩407B₩386B₩372B₩368B₩371B₩382B
Growth−5.8%−8.1%−3.1%−5.7%−3.5%−1.3%0.8%3.0%
EBIT₩20B₩15B₩13B₩15B₩14B₩14B₩14B₩15B
EBIT margin4.5%3.7%3.3%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%
After-tax EBIT₩15B₩11B₩9.6B₩11B₩10B₩10B₩10B₩11B
+ Depreciation———₩3.1B₩3B₩2.9B₩3B₩3.1B
− Capital spending₩4.5B₩4.6B₩4.4B₩4.2B₩4.1B₩4B₩4.1B₩4.2B
− Working capital₩19B₩1.2B₩10B−₩7.1B−₩4.1B−₩1.5B₩894M₩3.4B
Free cash flow———₩17B₩13B₩10B₩8.2B₩6B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8080.7520.700
Present value———₩15B₩11B₩8.5B₩6.2B₩4.2B

Terminal value ₩150B, worth ₩105B today: 70% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩15,863 a share)Now 0.40×₩6,5900.42×₩7,1610.45×₩10,0410.63×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩748 a share)Now 8.43×₩2,6993.61×₩6,5068.70×₩13,04517.4×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,028 a share)Now 6.13×₩3,7113.61×₩8,9458.70×₩17,93417.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩9,687₩9,889₩10,132₩10,433₩10,818
6.9%₩9,083₩9,220₩9,380₩9,574₩9,812
7.4%₩8,574₩8,664₩8,768₩8,889₩9,034
7.9%₩8,138₩8,195₩8,258₩8,330₩8,414
8.4%₩7,762₩7,794₩7,828₩7,866₩7,907

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩144B
Enterprise value
₩90B
P/E
8.4×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.4×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
6.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩7,060₩6,200₩6,910₩6,780₩9,100
Market cap₩161B₩141B₩158B₩155B₩207B
P/E9.5×9.9×9.0×12.9×3.2×
P/B0.4×0.4×0.4×0.5×0.6×
P/S0.4×0.3×0.3×0.3×0.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield5.7%6.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Korea Castiron Pipe IND8.4×0.4×0.4×—6.3%
POSCO Holdings16.6×0.4×0.3×7.8×3.5%
Korea Zinc18.9×1.6×0.9×—2.2%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.2×—1.9%
Poongsan8.3×0.7×0.3×6.0×2.8%
SeAH Besteel Holdings12.6×0.6×0.3×9.6×3.8%
Sama Aluminium—4.3×3.2×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)14.6×0.6×0.3×7.8×2.5%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Korea Castiron Pipe IND / 한국주철관 / 000970 / KRX:000970

Source: KRX statistical information