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PaperCorea

001020 · KOSPI · ₩001020 · 페이퍼코리아

₩1,815▲ ₩15 (0.83%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩24

vs the current price (₩1,815)

Enterprise value
₩110B
Equity value
₩849M
WACC
6.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 99% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,815, the model needs an operating margin of 5.6% every year (it uses 3.9%).
  • Or revenue growth +46.8 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from −2.0% to 8.6% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩24
−98.7%
Bull
₩4,075
+124.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.9%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 37.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 1.11

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 1.17, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩281B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩109B
+ Stakes and investments
₩2,000
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩7.9M
Shares
35,596,662
Share price
₩1,815
Market cap
₩65B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩362B₩290B₩267B₩253B₩236B₩228B₩228B₩234B
Growth−11.7%−19.9%−8.1%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩31B₩2B−₩5.3B₩9.9B₩9.2B₩8.9B₩8.9B₩9.1B
EBIT margin8.6%0.7%−2.0%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%
After-tax EBIT₩23B₩1.5B−₩3.8B₩7.2B₩6.7B₩6.4B₩6.4B₩6.6B
+ Depreciation———₩7.9B₩7.3B₩7.1B₩7.1B₩7.3B
− Capital spending₩9B₩14B₩11B₩9.6B₩9B₩8.7B₩8.6B₩8.9B
− Working capital−₩37B₩12B−₩14B−₩11B−₩6.4B−₩3.1B−₩173M₩2.6B
Free cash flow———₩16B₩11B₩8B₩5B₩2.4B
Discount factor———0.9410.8850.8330.7840.737
Present value———₩15B₩10B₩6.7B₩3.9B₩1.8B

Terminal value ₩98B, worth ₩72B today: 66% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩7,464 a share)Now 0.24×₩2,9980.40×₩3,9370.53×₩53,7407.20×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩293 a share)Now 6.18×₩2,6028.87×₩8,65729.5×₩20,68570.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.3%₩577₩671₩791₩951₩1,176
5.8%₩245₩296₩357₩435₩537
6.3%——₩24₩54₩91
6.8%—————
7.3%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩65B
Enterprise value
₩171B
P/E
—
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩3,100₩4,180₩4,510₩5,475₩8,025
Market cap₩110B₩149B₩161B₩195B₩286B
P/E——10.5×—30.9×
P/B0.4×0.5×0.5×3.2×6.3×
P/S0.4×0.5×0.4×0.5×0.7×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
PaperCorea—0.2×0.2×—0.0%
SM Kukil—3.2×6.1×—0.0%
Shindaeyang Paper9.9×0.5×0.5×—2.8%
Dongwha Enterprise—0.4×0.3×—0.0%
Asia Paper Manufacturing10.5×0.3×0.3×—2.8%
Hansol Paper7.3×0.2×0.1×—7.3%
Sambo Corrugated Board4.5×0.2×0.2×—2.4%
Similar companies (median)8.6×0.3×0.3×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: PaperCorea / 페이퍼코리아 / 001020 / KRX:001020

Source: KRX statistical information