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KG Chemical

001390 · KOSPI · ₩001390 · KG케미칼

₩3,720▼ ₩70 (1.85%)End-of-day · Oct 26, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩155,624

vs the current price (₩3,720)

Enterprise value
₩15T
Equity value
₩10T
WACC
4.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 4,083% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,720, the model needs an operating margin of 2.2% every year (it uses 4.9%).
  • Or revenue growth −27.8 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 2.7× against a typical 3.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩4,499
+20.9%
Base
₩155,624
+4,083.4%
Bull
₩570,491
+15,235.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.9%).

Revenue growth

  • 11.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 9.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 12.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.23, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩9.8T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩1.4T
+ Stakes and investments
₩317B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩3.1T
Shares
66,403,636
Share price
₩3,720
Market cap
₩247B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩8.9T₩8.9T₩9.1T₩11T₩12T₩13T₩13T₩14T
Growth35.2%−0.8%2.7%11.3%9.2%7.1%5.1%3.0%
EBIT₩443B₩319B₩306B₩533B₩582B₩623B₩655B₩675B
EBIT margin5.0%3.6%3.4%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%
After-tax EBIT₩321B₩231B₩222B₩386B₩422B₩452B₩475B₩489B
+ Depreciation———₩348B₩380B₩407B₩428B₩441B
− Capital spending₩280B₩411B₩388B₩435B₩475B₩509B₩535B₩551B
− Working capital₩424B₩318B−₩332B₩139B₩126B₩106B₩82B₩51B
Free cash flow———₩160B₩201B₩244B₩286B₩329B
Discount factor———0.9570.9160.8760.8390.803
Present value———₩153B₩184B₩214B₩240B₩264B

Terminal value ₩17T, worth ₩13T today: 93% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩15,810 a share)Now 0.24×₩4,2500.27×₩6,5510.41×₩12,2250.77×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,394 a share)Now 2.67×₩2,2351.60×₩5,0863.65×₩7,2655.21×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩2,173 a share)Now 1.71×₩3,4821.60×₩7,9263.65×₩11,3215.21×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.5%₩172,922₩223,592₩308,015₩476,935—
4.0%₩131,726₩164,138₩212,721₩293,666₩455,623
4.5%₩102,346₩124,559₩155,624₩202,184₩279,760
5.0%₩80,348₩96,331₩117,611₩147,369₩191,971
5.5%₩63,269₩75,193₩90,497₩110,873₩139,366

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩247B
Enterprise value
₩1.6T
P/E
2.7×
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.0×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
4.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩5,260₩3,730₩6,850₩4,110₩6,150
Market cap₩349B₩248B₩455B₩273B₩408B
P/E5.0×4.0×4.7×0.9×5.5×
P/B0.3×0.3×0.5×0.3×0.9×
P/S0.0×0.0×0.1×0.0×0.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.9%3.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
KG Chemical2.7×0.2×0.0×—4.0%
LG Chem—0.4×0.3×—0.9%
Hanwha Solutions—0.6×0.4×—0.0%
Hanwha6.1×0.4×0.1×—1.2%
SKC—2.0×1.9×—0.0%
KCC0.9×0.3×0.5×8.6×0.0%
Kumho Petro Chemical5.1×0.4×0.4×—1.7%
Similar companies (median)5.1×0.4×0.4×8.6×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: KG Chemical / KG케미칼 / 001390 / KRX:001390

Source: KRX statistical information