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Tongyang

001520 · KOSPI · ₩001520 · 동양

₩999▲ ₩6 (0.60%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩329

vs the current price (₩999)

Enterprise value
−₩63B
Equity value
₩35B
WACC
6.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 67% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩999, the model needs an operating margin of 0.7% every year (it uses −0.3%).
  • 100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
  • Today's P/E is 9.2× against a typical 10.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩329
−67.1%
Bull
₩1,919
+92.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−0.3%).

Revenue growth

  • -6.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -0.3%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 18.4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.11, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩582B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩25B
+ Stakes and investments
₩154B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩30B
Shares
107,590,352
incl. 468,320 preferred
Share price
₩999
Market cap
₩109B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩866B₩750B₩631B₩545B₩524B₩515B₩518B₩534B
Growth12.8%−13.4%−16.0%−6.3%−4.0%−1.7%0.7%3.0%
EBIT₩27B−₩921M−₩21B−₩1.6B−₩1.6B−₩1.5B−₩1.6B−₩1.6B
EBIT margin3.1%−0.1%−3.3%−0.3%−0.3%−0.3%−0.3%−0.3%
After-tax EBIT₩19B−₩667M−₩15B−₩1.2B−₩1.1B−₩1.1B−₩1.1B−₩1.2B
+ Depreciation———₩8.2B₩7.9B₩7.7B₩7.8B₩8B
− Capital spending₩18B₩15B₩9.7B₩9.8B₩9.4B₩9.3B₩9.3B₩9.6B
− Working capital−₩103B₩44B−₩3B−₩6.7B−₩4B−₩1.6B₩663M₩2.9B
Free cash flow———₩3.9B₩1.3B−₩1B−₩3.3B−₩5.6B
Discount factor———0.9360.8770.8210.7690.720
Present value———₩3.7B₩1.1B−₩842M−₩2.6B−₩4.1B

Terminal value −₩84B, worth −₩60B today: 96% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩6,665 a share)Now 0.15×₩1,1690.18×₩1,7490.26×₩2,4230.36×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩109 a share)Now 9.20×₩8587.90×₩1,18810.9×₩7,50769.1×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.8%₩451₩316₩144——
6.3%₩502₩388₩247₩68—
6.8%₩545₩447₩329₩182—
7.3%₩581₩496₩395₩271₩118
7.8%₩611₩537₩449₩344₩216

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩107B
Enterprise value
₩121B
P/E
9.2×
P/B
0.1×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,686₩1,388₩1,998₩2,000₩2,930
Market cap₩181B₩149B₩214B₩214B₩314B
P/E9.0×—11.8×—19.4×
P/B0.2×0.2×0.3×0.3×0.4×
P/S0.3×0.2×0.2×0.3×0.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Tongyang9.2×0.1×0.2×—0.0%
Tokai Carbon Korea30.7×4.3×7.0×—0.7%
Hanilcementco12.1×0.7×0.9×—6.0%
Wonik QnC13.8×1.2×0.7×—0.5%
Sampyo Cement16.9×0.8×0.9×6.0×2.2%
Hanil Holdings9.5×0.3×0.3×—5.9%
IS Dongseo5.2×0.3×0.4×—3.5%
Similar companies (median)13.0×0.7×0.8×6.0×2.8%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Tongyang / 동양 / 001520 / KRX:001520

Source: KRX statistical information