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Shin HWA Dynamics

001770 · KOSPI · ₩001770 · SHD

₩3,925 ₩0 (0.00%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩16,741

vs the current price (₩3,925)

Enterprise value
₩20B
Equity value
₩20B
WACC
6.0%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 327% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,925, the model needs an operating margin of 1.4% every year (it uses 2.4%).
  • Margins ranged from −3.8% to 11.3% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 69% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 3.4× against a typical 4.8× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩16,741
+326.5%
Bull
₩59,737
+1,422.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.4%).

Revenue growth

  • -7.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -4.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.

  • 4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.

  • 32.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.16, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩101B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩3.2B
+ Stakes and investments
₩3.8B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
1,214,878
Share price
₩3,925
Market cap
₩4.8B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩106B₩107B₩100B₩94B₩89B₩87B₩88B₩91B
Growth−15.1%0.3%−5.8%−7.1%−4.6%−2.1%0.5%3.0%
EBIT₩673M−₩4B₩2.7B₩2.2B₩2.1B₩2.1B₩2.1B₩2.2B
EBIT margin0.6%−3.8%2.7%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%
After-tax EBIT₩488M−₩2.9B₩2B₩1.6B₩1.6B₩1.5B₩1.5B₩1.6B
+ Depreciation———₩2.8B₩2.7B₩2.6B₩2.6B₩2.7B
− Capital spending———₩3.7B₩3.6B₩3.5B₩3.5B₩3.6B
− Working capital₩13B−₩6.2B₩8.3B−₩2.3B−₩1.4B−₩606M₩141M₩851M
Free cash flow———₩3B₩2.1B₩1.3B₩509M−₩182M
Discount factor———0.9440.8900.8400.7930.748
Present value———₩2.8B₩1.8B₩1.1B₩404M−₩136M

Terminal value ₩18B, worth ₩14B today: 70% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩44,957 a share)Now 0.09×₩14,7160.33×₩19,4010.43×₩42,2470.94×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,162 a share)Now 3.38×₩4,0823.51×₩5,5994.82×₩12,87911.1×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.0%₩22,061₩21,787₩21,389₩20,791₩19,841
5.5%₩19,816₩19,354₩18,731₩17,869₩16,619
6.0%₩18,024₩17,464₩16,741₩15,784₩14,475
6.5%₩16,559₩15,954₩15,194₩14,221₩12,942
7.0%₩15,341₩14,720₩13,957₩13,004₩11,789

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩4.8B
Enterprise value
₩8B
P/E
3.4×
P/B
0.1×
P/S
0.0×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
5.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩18,150₩13,640₩21,150₩31,900₩29,950
Market cap₩22B₩17B₩26B₩39B₩36B
P/E11.2×5.7×233.0×3.6×6.3×
P/B0.4×0.3×0.5×0.8×0.9×
P/S0.2×0.2×0.2×0.3×0.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield1.1%0.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Shin HWA Dynamics3.4×0.1×0.0×—5.1%
POSCO Holdings16.2×0.4×0.3×7.7×3.6%
Korea Zinc18.6×1.6×0.9×—2.3%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.2×—1.9%
Poongsan8.1×0.7×0.3×5.9×2.9%
SeAH Besteel Holdings12.2×0.5×0.3×9.5×4.0%
Sama Aluminium—4.1×3.0×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)14.2×0.6×0.3×7.7×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Shin HWA Dynamics / SHD / 001770 / KRX:001770

Source: KRX statistical information