KOSPI · 001780 · Steel & Materials · ₩001780

Aluko알루코

001780 · KOSPI · ₩001780 · 알루코

₩1,873▲ ₩58 (3.20%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value: ₩370B
Equity value: −₩196B
WACC: 5.0%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩1,873, the model needs an operating margin of 8.7% every year (it uses 5.5%).
Or revenue growth +26.3 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Today's P/E is 9.4× against a typical 17.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: —
Base: —
Bull: ₩4,671; +149.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (5.5%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 1-3.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 2-2.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 3-0.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 41.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin5.5%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation8.5%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending10.6%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.18, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩526B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩484B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩1.5B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests: ₩83B
Shares: 96,830,132
Share price: ₩1,873
Market cap: ₩181B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩591B	₩623B	₩576B	₩506B	₩496B	₩494B	₩500B	₩515B
Growth	−8.4%	5.4%	−7.6%	−3.7%	−2.1%	−0.4%	1.3%	3.0%
EBIT	₩38B	₩38B	₩35B	₩28B	₩27B	₩27B	₩28B	₩28B
EBIT margin	6.4%	6.1%	6.1%	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%
After-tax EBIT	₩27B	₩28B	₩25B	₩20B	₩20B	₩20B	₩20B	₩21B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩43B	₩42B	₩42B	₩43B	₩44B
− Capital spending	₩67B	₩55B	₩67B	₩54B	₩53B	₩52B	₩53B	₩55B
− Working capital	₩50B	₩51B	−₩15B	−₩7.8B	−₩4.3B	−₩793M	₩2.6B	₩6B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩17B	₩14B	₩10B	₩6.9B	₩3.7B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.953	0.907	0.864	0.823	0.784
Present value	—	—	—	₩17B	₩12B	₩8.7B	₩5.7B	₩2.9B

Terminal value ₩412B, worth ₩324B today: 88% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩3,564 a share)Now 0.53×	₩2,2040.62×	₩3,6311.02×	₩5,1361.44×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩200 a share)Now 9.36×	₩2,00810.0×	₩3,51717.6×	₩6,23531.2×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
4.0%	—	—	—	₩1,138	₩3,579
4.5%	—	—	—	—	₩414
5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
6.0%	—	—	—	—	—

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩181B
Enterprise value: ₩665B
P/E: 9.4×
P/B: 0.5×
P/S: 0.3×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩2,125	₩2,005	₩3,060	₩2,585	₩3,410
Market cap	₩206B	₩194B	₩296B	₩250B	₩330B
P/E	13.3×	10.7×	16.0×	18.0×	79.5×
P/B	0.6×	0.6×	1.1×	1.1×	1.4×
P/S	0.4×	0.3×	0.5×	0.4×	0.7×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	0.0%	—	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Aluko	9.4×	0.5×	0.3×	—	0.0%
POSCO Holdings	16.2×	0.4×	0.3×	7.7×	3.6%
Korea Zinc	18.1×	1.6×	0.8×	—	2.3%
Hyundai Steel	—	0.2×	0.2×	—	1.9%
Poongsan	8.0×	0.7×	0.3×	5.9×	2.9%
SeAH Besteel Holdings	12.7×	0.6×	0.3×	9.6×	3.8%
Sama Aluminium	—	4.3×	3.1×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	14.4×	0.6×	0.3×	7.7×	2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Aluko / 알루코 / 001780 / KRX:001780

Source: KRX statistical information