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Kolon

002020 · KOSPI · ₩002020 · 코오롱

₩20,650▼ ₩50 (0.24%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

This is a holding company, but we don't have its stakes in listed companies yet, so we use a discounted cash flow for now.

Fair value per share

₩195,533

vs the current price (₩20,650)

Enterprise value
₩4.3T
Equity value
₩2.8T
WACC
4.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 847% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩20,650, the model needs an operating margin of 1.5% every year (it uses 2.8%).
  • Or revenue growth −17.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩195,533
+846.9%
Bull
₩1,006,858
+4,775.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.8%).

Revenue growth

  • 1.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 2.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 3.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.79

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.69, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩6.2T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩2.4T
+ Stakes and investments
₩1.6T
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩686B
Shares
14,068,117
incl. 1,160,437 preferred
Share price
₩20,650
Market cap
₩280B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩5.9T₩6T₩5.9T₩6.3T₩6.4T₩6.5T₩6.7T₩6.9T
Growth4.1%2.3%−2.4%1.3%1.7%2.2%2.6%3.0%
EBIT₩103B−₩90B₩61B₩176B₩179B₩183B₩187B₩193B
EBIT margin1.7%−1.5%1.0%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%
After-tax EBIT₩75B−₩65B₩44B₩127B₩130B₩132B₩136B₩140B
+ Depreciation₩24B₩32B₩33B₩31B₩32B₩33B₩33B₩34B
− Capital spending₩66B₩185B₩207B₩163B₩166B₩170B₩174B₩179B
− Working capital₩175B₩222B−₩677B₩2.7B₩3.5B₩4.6B₩5.6B₩6.6B
Free cash flow−₩143B−₩439B₩546B−₩7.1B−₩8B−₩9.2B−₩10B−₩11B
Discount factor———0.9570.9160.8760.8380.802
Present value———−₩6.7B−₩7.3B−₩8.1B−₩8.6B−₩9.2B

Terminal value ₩5.4T, worth ₩4.3T today: 101% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩144,391 a share)Now 0.14×₩22,7760.16×₩43,1080.30×₩68,7070.48×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩6,044 a share)Now 3.42×₩5,8920.97×₩15,1372.50×₩76,89412.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.5%₩212,874₩292,187₩424,144₩687,293₩1,471,078
4.0%₩152,606₩204,081₩281,191₩409,483₩665,324
4.5%₩109,700₩145,487₩195,533₩270,503₩395,234
5.0%₩77,648₩103,771₩138,565₩187,223₩260,113
5.5%₩52,833₩72,608₩98,006₩131,836₩179,143

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩267B
Enterprise value
₩2.5T
P/E
—
P/B
0.1×
P/S
0.0×
EV/EBITDA
11.5×
Dividend yield
2.7%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩50,000₩14,030₩17,400₩21,900₩33,050
Market cap₩645B₩181B₩225B₩283B₩427B
P/E—1.1×26.2×2.1×3.3×
P/B0.3×0.1×0.2×0.3×0.5×
P/S0.1×0.0×0.0×0.0×0.1×
EV/EBITDA28.6×—14.7×4.6×4.3×
Dividend yield1.1%3.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Kolon—0.1×0.0×11.5×2.7%
SK Square3.7×2.2×98.7×3.6×0.0%
KB Financial Group8.7×0.9×—9.5×2.8%
Shinhan Financial Group7.7×0.7×—10.1×2.9%
SK4.9×1.1×0.3×—1.5%
Hana Financial Group7.6×0.7×—9.9×3.6%
Woori Financial Group6.9×0.6×—8.3×4.5%
Similar companies (median)7.3×0.8×49.5×9.5×2.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Kolon / 코오롱 / 002020 / KRX:002020

Source: KRX statistical information