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Korea Export Packaging Industrial

002200 · KOSPI · ₩002200 · 한국수출포장

₩2,615▲ ₩10 (0.38%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩4,094

vs the current price (₩2,615)

Enterprise value
₩78B
Equity value
₩137B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 57% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,615, the model needs an operating margin of 1.4% every year (it uses 2.8%).
  • Margins ranged from −2.3% to 7.5% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩2,110
−19.3%
Base
₩4,094
+56.6%
Bull
₩7,790
+197.9%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.8%).

Revenue growth

  • -5.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 14.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.05, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩290B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩58B
+ Stakes and investments
₩387M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
33,499,941
Share price
₩2,615
Market cap
₩88B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩312B₩302B₩290B₩275B₩266B₩263B₩265B₩273B
Growth−8.5%−3.4%−4.0%−5.3%−3.3%−1.2%0.9%3.0%
EBIT₩23B−₩586M−₩6.6B₩7.7B₩7.4B₩7.4B₩7.4B₩7.6B
EBIT margin7.3%−0.2%−2.3%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%
After-tax EBIT₩17B−₩425M−₩4.8B₩5.6B₩5.4B₩5.3B₩5.4B₩5.5B
+ Depreciation———₩4.7B₩4.5B₩4.5B₩4.5B₩4.6B
− Capital spending₩5.3B₩7.6B₩5.9B₩5.8B₩5.6B₩5.5B₩5.6B₩5.7B
− Working capital−₩32B₩14B−₩36B−₩2.2B−₩1.3B−₩456M₩338M₩1.1B
Free cash flow———₩6.7B₩5.6B₩4.7B₩4B₩3.3B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩6.2B₩4.9B₩3.8B₩3B₩2.3B

Terminal value ₩83B, worth ₩58B today: 74% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩8,028 a share)Now 0.33×₩2,3130.29×₩2,6590.33×₩2,9360.37×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩106 a share)Now 24.6×₩5074.78×₩5625.29×₩1,0549.92×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩4,337₩4,461₩4,613₩4,803₩5,050
6.8%₩4,119₩4,214₩4,326₩4,465₩4,638
7.3%₩3,936₩4,009₩4,094₩4,196₩4,321
7.8%₩3,780₩3,836₩3,901₩3,978₩4,070
8.3%₩3,645₩3,689₩3,739₩3,798₩3,866

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩88B
Enterprise value
₩29B
P/E
—
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩3,120₩2,775₩2,965₩2,875₩2,550
Market cap₩105B₩93B₩99B₩96B₩85B
P/E—27.4×5.2×4.7×5.4×
P/B0.4×0.3×0.3×0.3×0.3×
P/S0.4×0.3×0.3×0.3×0.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.6%2.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Korea Export Packaging Industrial—0.3×0.3×—3.1%
SM Kukil—3.2×6.1×—0.0%
Shindaeyang Paper10.0×0.5×0.5×—2.8%
Dongwha Enterprise—0.3×0.3×—0.0%
Asia Paper Manufacturing10.4×0.3×0.3×—2.8%
Hansol Paper7.4×0.2×0.1×—7.3%
Sambo Corrugated Board4.5×0.2×0.2×—2.5%
Similar companies (median)8.7×0.3×0.3×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Korea Export Packaging Industrial / 한국수출포장 / 002200 / KRX:002200

Source: KRX statistical information