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Kiswire

002240 · KOSPI · ₩002240 · 고려제강

₩14,700▼ ₩10 (0.07%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩24,024

vs the current price (₩14,700)

Enterprise value
₩433B
Equity value
₩649B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 63% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩14,700, the model needs an operating margin of 2.0% every year (it uses 3.2%).
  • 64% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 8.2× against a typical 9.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩10,937
−25.6%
Base
₩24,024
+63.4%
Bull
₩49,463
+236.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.2%).

Revenue growth

  • -4.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 35.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.27, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.8T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩16B
+ Stakes and investments
₩349B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩149B
Shares
27,000,000
Share price
₩14,700
Market cap
₩397B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.8T₩1.7T₩1.8T₩1.7T₩1.7T₩1.7T₩1.7T₩1.7T
Growth−13.7%−2.8%4.0%−4.4%−2.6%−0.7%1.1%3.0%
EBIT₩56B₩26B₩41B₩55B₩54B₩53B₩54B₩56B
EBIT margin3.1%1.5%2.3%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%
After-tax EBIT₩41B₩19B₩30B₩40B₩39B₩39B₩39B₩40B
+ Depreciation———₩50B₩49B₩48B₩49B₩50B
− Capital spending₩52B₩66B₩78B₩64B₩62B₩62B₩62B₩64B
− Working capital−₩73B₩47B−₩20B−₩28B−₩16B−₩4.2B₩6.6B₩18B
Free cash flow———₩55B₩42B₩30B₩19B₩8.3B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———₩51B₩36B₩24B₩14B₩5.8B

Terminal value ₩431B, worth ₩302B today: 70% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩71,197 a share)Now 0.21×₩18,2250.26×₩20,8610.29×₩24,3170.34×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,800 a share)Now 8.17×₩6,1853.44×₩17,2709.60×₩56,28031.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩4,314 a share)Now 3.41×₩14,8283.44×₩41,4049.60×₩134,92931.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩27,701₩27,535₩27,313₩27,012₩26,599
6.9%₩26,090₩25,830₩25,501₩25,079₩24,527
7.4%₩24,732₩24,414₩24,024₩23,537₩22,922
7.9%₩23,571₩23,220₩22,796₩22,279₩21,641
8.4%₩22,568₩22,198₩21,758₩21,232₩20,593

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩397B
Enterprise value
₩381B
P/E
8.2×
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.4%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩21,400₩17,850₩18,800₩18,059₩16,572
Market cap₩578B₩482B₩508B₩488B₩447B
P/E60.1×14.3×7.1×6.0×3.4×
P/B0.3×0.3×0.3×0.3×0.3×
P/S0.3×0.3×0.3×0.2×0.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield1.6%2.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Kiswire8.2×0.2×0.2×—2.4%
POSCO Holdings16.6×0.4×0.3×7.8×3.5%
Korea Zinc18.9×1.6×0.9×—2.2%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.2×—1.9%
Poongsan8.3×0.7×0.3×6.0×2.8%
SeAH Besteel Holdings12.6×0.6×0.3×9.6×3.8%
Sama Aluminium—4.3×3.2×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)14.6×0.6×0.3×7.8×2.5%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Kiswire / 고려제강 / 002240 / KRX:002240

Source: KRX statistical information