Ask Warren

Asia Paper Manufacturing

002310 · KOSPI · ₩002310 · 아세아제지

₩7,230▲ ₩230 (3.29%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩16,260

vs the current price (₩7,230)

Enterprise value
₩506B
Equity value
₩641B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 125% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩7,230, the model needs an operating margin of 2.9% every year (it uses 6.4%).
  • Today's P/E is 10.5× against a typical 4.4× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩9,193
+27.1%
Base
₩16,260
+124.9%
Bull
₩28,776
+298.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.4%).

Revenue growth

  • -5.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 6.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 7.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 8.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 9.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.23, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩874B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩135B
+ Stakes and investments
₩958M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
39,449,510
Share price
₩7,230
Market cap
₩285B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩908B₩891B₩855B₩824B₩794B₩783B₩789B₩813B
Growth−11.2%−1.9%−4.0%−5.8%−3.6%−1.4%0.8%3.0%
EBIT₩88B₩27B₩27B₩53B₩51B₩50B₩51B₩52B
EBIT margin9.6%3.0%3.2%6.4%6.4%6.4%6.4%6.4%
After-tax EBIT₩63B₩19B₩20B₩38B₩37B₩36B₩37B₩38B
+ Depreciation———₩58B₩56B₩56B₩56B₩58B
− Capital spending₩104B₩45B₩86B₩73B₩71B₩70B₩70B₩72B
− Working capital−₩95B−₩73B−₩7.6B−₩5B−₩2.9B−₩1.1B₩620M₩2.3B
Free cash flow———₩28B₩25B₩23B₩22B₩21B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7530.702
Present value———₩26B₩22B₩19B₩16B₩15B

Terminal value ₩580B, worth ₩407B today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩21,498 a share)Now 0.34×₩7,2920.34×₩8,1010.38×₩10,5780.49×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩689 a share)Now 10.5×₩2,1533.13×₩3,0224.39×₩9,60914.0×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,152 a share)Now 6.28×₩3,6023.13×₩5,0574.39×₩16,07714.0×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩16,997₩18,038₩19,317₩20,928₩23,021
6.8%₩15,788₩16,623₩17,629₩18,866₩20,424
7.3%₩14,772₩15,453₩16,260₩17,232₩18,428
7.8%₩13,906₩14,468₩15,126₩15,907₩16,847
8.3%₩13,159₩13,629₩14,173₩14,809₩15,563

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩285B
Enterprise value
₩144B
P/E
10.5×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.8%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩7,970₩7,300₩8,250₩7,880₩10,520
Market cap₩314B₩288B₩325B₩311B₩415B
P/E10.6×12.0×4.0×3.3×4.6×
P/B0.4×0.3×0.4×0.4×0.6×
P/S0.4×0.3×0.4×0.3×0.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.5%3.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Asia Paper Manufacturing10.5×0.3×0.3×—2.8%
SM Kukil—3.2×6.1×—0.0%
Shindaeyang Paper9.9×0.5×0.5×—2.8%
Dongwha Enterprise—0.4×0.3×—0.0%
Hansol Paper7.3×0.2×0.1×—7.3%
Sambo Corrugated Board4.5×0.2×0.2×—2.4%
Moorim P&P—0.2×0.1×—7.8%
Similar companies (median)7.3×0.3×0.3×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Asia Paper Manufacturing / 아세아제지 / 002310 / KRX:002310

Source: KRX statistical information